Ohrid vs Kozuv Gevgelija: match prediction on 30 August 2026

The home side carries momentum from four victories in their last five matches while Kozuv Gevgelija have lost four of their past five outings. That disparity in form, combined with Ohrid's unbeaten run in the last four head-to-head meetings, points to a home victory.

Ohrid's attacking output has been decisive. They scored 14 goals across those five games while conceding just 3. Three of their last five results came at home, including a 7:1 victory over Sloga Vinica and a 2:1 win against Novaci on 15 August. The side tends to finish matches strongly, with 83% of their goals arriving in the final 15 minutes of games.

Kozuv Gevgelija's record tells a different story entirely. They have managed only one win from five matches, scoring 2 goals and conceding 7. Their last competitive result was a 2:0 home victory over Shkupi 1927 on 22 August, but since then they have lost away to Rabotnicki 0:3 and dropped points in friendlies against Detonit Plachkovica and Belasica. The side has not kept a clean sheet in four of those five matches.

The head-to-head record reinforces Ohrid's position. In eight meetings over recent years, Ohrid have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 2. More importantly, they are unbeaten in the last four encounters, winning 3 and drawing 1. The most recent fixture on 14 March 2026 ended 1:0 to Ohrid away from home.

The model expects Ohrid to score 1.6 goals against Kozuv Gevgelija's 0.9. The most likely scoreline is 1:0 at 14%, followed by 1:1 at 12% and 2:0 at 11%. The draw probability sits at 25%, while both teams scoring comes in at 46%. Ohrid's timing pattern suggests they could decide this match late, with half of the goals they concede also arriving in the 76-90 minute window.

A draw would break this prediction, particularly if Kozuv Gevgelija adopt a defensive approach and manage to survive the opening half without conceding. The model's 25% draw probability reflects that possibility, and a late goal from the visitors in the final quarter would shift the balance entirely.