Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera: match prediction on 10 September 2026
Once Caldas
Alianza Petrolera
Prediction for
Win: Once Caldas
60%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
65%
1
23%
X
12%
2
Average bookmaker line (50)
1.45
1
4.04
X
7.62
2
Odds range
1.31 — 2.58
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 01:19- Альянса Петролера — 2. place, 7 points after 4 games (2 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses)
- Онсе Кальдас, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Альянса Петролера, last 5 games: 0 wins, 1 draws, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Онсе Кальдас — 1, 3 draws, Альянса Петролера — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Once Caldas
DDWLW
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Alianza Petrolera
DLLLL
1 draw · 4 losses
Head to head 12
1Once Caldas
6Draw
5Alianza Petrolera
- 8 FebAlianza Petrolera — Once Caldas1:1
- 15 Aug 2025Alianza Petrolera — Once Caldas0:0
- 2 Mar 2025Once Caldas — Alianza Petrolera1:2
- 6 Oct 2024Alianza Petrolera — Once Caldas1:0
- 25 Mar 2024Once Caldas — Alianza Petrolera1:0
Bookmaker market
50
bookmakers counted
1.45
Average bookmaker line
1.31 — 2.58
Odds range
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 01:19Once Caldas Win Copa Colombia Clash Against Alianza Petrolera
The betting market reflected confidence in the home side before kickoff. The market backed the home side, but the pitch told a different story.
Once Caldas dominated possession but could not break down a deep block. Once Caldas averaged 55 per cent possession compared to Alianza Petrolera's 46 per cent, and generated 6.3 shots on target versus 2.8 for the visitors. However, the statistical model predicted a narrow outcome, estimating a 1.7 goal expectancy for Once Caldas and 0.8 for Alianza Petrolera. The model placed the likelihood of a draw at 24 per cent and both teams scoring at 45 per cent.
Suspension risks were present for both squads heading into the contest. Once Caldas faced the absence of Jader Quiñónes, who had accumulated five yellow cards, while Mateo Sulenta and Andrés Correa were one booking away from a ban. Alianza Petrolera were without Carlos Andrés Esparragoza Pérez for the same reason, leaving Fabián David Cantillo Beleño one booking away from a ban. Once Caldas' top scorers Jefry Arley Zapata Ramírez and Dayro Mauricio Moreno Galindo each have five goals in the last six months, while Édgar Pardo leads the away side with three.
The visitors have struggled for consistency recently, winless in their last five matches with four defeats and only one draw. They have conceded 12 goals in that span while scoring just three.
The match statistics showed Once Caldas creating more attacks, averaging 100 per game compared to Alianza Petrolera's 93. The home side also won more corners, averaging 5.7 against the visitors' 3.6.
Once Caldas' goal-scoring distribution highlights a tendency to finish matches strongly, with 31 per cent of their 52 goals coming in the final 15 minutes. Alianza Petrolera are more vulnerable early in matches, conceding 15 per cent of their 41 goals between the 16th and 30th minutes. Once Caldas concede 26 per cent of their goals in the final period, suggesting a pattern of late-game pressure from both sides.
They have two wins, one draw, and one loss from four matches. Once Caldas continue to build momentum, having secured five points from their last five outings despite a mixed run of results.