Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Rubin vs Makhachkala: match prediction on 30 August 2026
Rubin
Makhachkala
Prediction for
Win: Rubin
40%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
40%
1
31%
X
29%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:00- Рубин — 8. place, 6 points after 5 games (1 wins, 3 draws, 1 losses)
- Махачкала — 5. place, 9 points after 5 games (3 wins, 2 losses)
- Рубин, last 5 games: 0 wins, 4 draws, 1 losses
- Махачкала, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Рубин — 5, Махачкала — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Rubin
DDWDD
1 win · 4 draws
Makhachkala
DLLLW
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Head to head 6
5Rubin
0Draw
1Makhachkala
- 28 FebMakhachkala — Rubin2:1
- 12 Sep 2025Rubin — Makhachkala1:0
- 7 Dec 2024Makhachkala — Rubin2:3
- 23 Aug 2024Rubin — Makhachkala2:0
- 27 May 2023Rubin — Makhachkala2:0
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:00I see Rubin holding on for a draw. The model puts the probability at 31%, and the pattern of their last four matches—four consecutive 1:1 draws—suggests they have found a way to grind out results.
Rubin's draw machine
Rubin have drawn four of their last five matches. Since then, every game has ended 1:1—against Baltika away, Spartak Moscow at home, Rostov away, and Orenburg at home. They have scored four goals and conceded nine in that run. The pattern is clear: they cannot win, but they rarely lose.
Makhachkala's mixed fortunes
Makhachkala occupy sixth place with nine points from five games. Their form is uneven. They beat Krylya Sovetov 4:1 away on 16 August, but since then have lost to Krasnodar 0:1, drawn with Baltika 1:1, and lost to Dinamo Moscow 1:3. They have scored seven goals and conceded eight in their last five matches. The model expects them to create 0.9 goals, which is lower than Rubin's 1.1. They have struggled to finish chances recently.
History favours the hosts
Rubin have won five of the last six meetings between these sides. Makhachkala's only victory came 28 February 2026 when they beat Rubin 2:1 away. At home, Rubin have won three of the last four encounters: 1:0 in September 2025, 2:0 in August 2024, and 2:0 in May 2023. The visitors have not won here in seven years.
What the numbers suggest
The model's most likely scoreline is 1:0 to Rubin at 15%, followed by 0:0 and 1:1 both at 13%. The draw probability sits at 31%, and both teams to score is 40%. Rubin concede heavily in the final 15 minutes—43% of their goals against come in that period—but Makhachkala also struggle late, with 30% of their goals conceded after the 75th minute. If this match stays tight, the hosts have the edge.
This conclusion stops holding if Makhachkala score early. They have conceded 20% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes, and if they go ahead, Rubin's tendency to draw could work against them. A draw suits the visitors—they have shown they can come away from Kazan with a point—but the head-to-head record and Rubin's home form make that the secondary outcome.