San Jose Earthquakes II vs Los Angeles II: match prediction on 31 August 2026

San Jose Earthquakes II are favored to win with a 61% confidence level. The model expects them to score 2.2 goals against a Los Angeles side that averages 1.2, and recent form is poor for the hosts, but the underlying numbers point the other way.

Form lines

San Jose have collected just 3 points from their last 5 matches — 3 draws and 2 losses, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Their most recent outing ended 1:0 away at Austin on 24 August. Los Angeles II sit the other end of the spectrum with 10 points from the same span: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, including a 4:1 defeat at Whitecaps on 27 August and a 4:3 home victory over Tacoma on 17 August. The contrast is stark, but the table tells a different story.

Standings gap

Los Angeles II occupy 5th place with 41 points from 24 matches, while San Jose sit 9th on 33 points after 23 games. The hosts have one game in hand and sit 8 points off the visitors. Points alone do not decide this fixture, but they show where each side sits in the race for the playoffs.

Timing patterns

Both sides follow the same late-game template. San Jose score 46% of their 48 goals in the final 15 minutes and concede 53% of their 40 in the same window. Los Angeles II score 58% of 73 goals after 75 minutes and let in 60% of 70. This is not a coincidence — both teams open matches cautiously and attack when there is something to play for. A tight first half is likely, with the decisive moments arriving late.

Conditions that break the pick

A draw suits the visitors — given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. If Los Angeles II take the lead and keep the ball, the hosts may lack the firepower to turn it. The model gives a 20% chance of a stalemate and 62% that both sides score, so a 1:1 result is within range. San Jose's confidence is fragile after five matches without a win; one poor start and the game slips away.