Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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San Martín de Tucumán vs Club Atlético Güemes: match prediction on 30 August 2026
San Martín de Tucumán
Club Atlético Güemes
Prediction for
Win: San Martín de Tucumán
64%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
64%
1
23%
X
12%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 10:41- Сан-Мартин-де-Тукуман — 10. place, 35 points after 26 games (8 wins, 11 draws, 7 losses)
- Клуб Атлетико Гьемес — 18. place, 22 points after 26 games (5 wins, 7 draws, 14 losses)
- Сан-Мартин-де-Тукуман, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Клуб Атлетико Гьемес, last 5 games: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 7 games, Сан-Мартин-де-Тукуман — 2, 4 draws, Клуб Атлетико Гьемес — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
San Martín de Tucumán
WDLWL
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Club Atlético Güemes
DDLLL
2 draws · 3 losses
Head to head 8
3San Martín de Tucumán
4Draw
1Club Atlético Güemes
- 12 AprClub Atlético Güemes — San Martín de Tucumán0:2
- 6 Jul 2025Club Atlético Güemes — San Martín de Tucumán2:1
- 2 Mar 2025San Martín de Tucumán — Club Atlético Güemes1:1
- 27 Oct 2024San Martín de Tucumán — Club Atlético Güemes2:2
- 9 Jun 2024Club Atlético Güemes — San Martín de Tucumán0:0
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 10:41The gap between 35 points and 22 points after 26 matches tells the story, and the model's expected goals of 1.7 for the home side against 0.6 for Güemes point the same way.
San Martín de Tucumán have taken five points from their last five matches, winning 2:1 away at Chacarita Juniors on 23 August after two consecutive draws. The 2:2 at home to Deportivo Madryn and 1:1 with San Martín San Juan showed they can grind results, but the 1:2 defeats at Nueva Chicago and to Temperley exposed defensive frailties. They scored seven and conceded eight in that run, yet they remain competitive at 10th place.
Club Atlético Güemes have failed to win any of their last five games, collecting just three points from three draws and two losses. They managed 0:0 draws at home against Atletico de Rafaela and away at Chacarita Juniors, plus a 1:1 at Atletico Mitre, but the 0:3 thrashing at Agropecuario and 1:3 loss to Tristan Suárez revealed a side struggling for ideas. They have scored only two goals in that period while conceding seven.
The most recent encounter on 12 April 2026 ended 2:0 to the visitors at Güemes' ground, while the home fixture on 6 July 2025 saw Güemes win 2:1.
The model expects 1.7 goals for San Martín and 0.6 for Güemes, with a 23% probability of a draw and 36% that both teams score. The most likely scorelines are 1:0 at 18%, 2:0 at 15%, and 0:0 at 10%. Three or more goals carry a 39% probability.
A draw suits the visitors, and given how they run the clock down in tight matches, that is the main threat to this prediction. Güemes' three consecutive draws show they are comfortable taking a point, and if they can contain San Martín's attack in the first hour, the match could slip away from the home side.
San Martín de Tucumán score heavily in the final 15 minutes, with 37% of their 30 goals coming in that period, while Güemes concede 35% of their 40 goals between the 61st and 75th minute. That mismatch could prove decisive if the game remains level.