Sarıyer vs Pendikspor: match prediction on 1 September 2026

Sarıyer to edge Pendikspor despite visitors' perfect record

Sarıyer win at 41% confidence. The hosts carry momentum after three victories in their last five matches, while Pendikspor have won both previous meetings but sit 12th with just five points from four games. Sarıyer's attacking output has been more consistent—seven goals across five outings compared to Pendikspor's seven in the same span, but with fewer defeats. The model gives Sarıyer 1.2 expected goals against Pendikspor's 1.0, a narrow margin that favours the home side when form outweighs historical dominance.

Sarıyer's results read 3-1-1 in their last five: a 2-1 away victory at Antalyaspor on 28 August, a 1-2 home defeat to Batman Petrolspor on 23 August, a 1-1 draw away at Erokspor on 14 August, a 2-0 home win over Muğlaspor on 9 August, and a 1-0 away success against BB Bodrumspor on 2 May. They have scored seven and conceded four across those fixtures. The pattern shows improvement away from home—two wins and a draw in three road games—while their only home loss came early in the campaign.

Pendikspor's last five produced 1-2-2: a 1-1 home draw with Bandırmaspor on 28 August, a 3-2 away win at Antalyaspor on 22 August, a 1-4 away loss to Keçiörengücü on 16 August, a 2-2 home draw against Batman Petrolspor on 10 August, and a 0-2 away defeat to BB Bodrumspor on 7 May. They have netted seven and conceded 11. The visitors show vulnerability on the road—just one win in three away matches—and their defensive record (11 goals conceded in five games) raises questions about consistency.

The head-to-head tells a different story. Pendikspor won 2-0 at home on 15 February 2026 and 2-0 away at Sarıyer on 21 September 2025. Two meetings, two victories for the visitors. Yet Sarıyer's current position six places higher and their superior point tally (seven versus five) suggest the dynamic has shifted. Pendikspor's two draws in their last five indicate they can grind results, but they have also lost twice away from home this season.

The model projects 1:1 (13%), 1:0 (13%), and 0:1 (11%) as the three most likely scorelines. A draw carries 28% probability, while both teams scoring sits at 46%. Sarıyer score heavily in the final 30 minutes—23% of their goals come between 76 and 90 minutes—while Pendikspor have conceded 25% of their goals in the same period. If the match stays level after 75 minutes, Sarıyer's late pressure becomes the deciding factor.

This conclusion stops holding if Pendikspor replicate their head-to-head pattern of controlling games without conceding. A 0-0 or 1-1 result after 75 minutes would suit the visitors, who have drawn two of their last five and know how to manage tight fixtures. Their 1-1 draw with Bandırmaspor on 28 August showed they can absorb pressure and protect a point. If they do that here, Sarıyer's home advantage evaporates.