Shakhter Soligorsk vs Lida: match prediction on 29 August 2026

Lida are the shot at victory here, and the 1:2 scoreline carries the most weight. The gap between them is ten points in the table, and the form difference is stark: Shakhter Soligorsk have lost four of their last five matches, while Lida have won four in the same period. The model puts Lida's expected goals at 2.2 against Shakhter's 1.8, and the most probable outcome is a visitors' win by one goal.

Form

Shakhter Soligorsk's recent run has been damaging. They scored six goals and conceded sixteen across their last five fixtures, with defeats at home to Niva (2:6) and away to Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (1:4) showing how exposed they are. The only bright spot was a 1:0 win over FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk on 5 August, but even that came after three straight losses. Lida, by contrast, have collected twelve points from their last five matches, losing only once away to FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (2:3) while beating Niva (3:2), FC Slutsk (2:1), Dinamo Minsk II (2:1) and Ostrovets FC (3:1).

Numbers

Lida occupy third place with 39 points after 21 matches, while Shakhter sit ninth with 29 points. The 20% probability for a draw is low, and the 74% chance that both teams score suggests Shakhter might find the net at home despite their struggles. The 77% probability of three or more goals points toward an open game, which suits Lida's attacking rhythm. Their top scorer Dmitri Vashkevich has four goals this season and scored most recently on 23 August against Niva.

Timing

Shakhter Soligorsk's goal distribution is uneven. They score heavily in the final fifteen minutes (39%) but contribute nothing in the middle periods (0% in both 46-60 and 61-75). Lida show a different profile, with 28% of their goals coming between 61 and 75 minutes, which could be decisive if the match stays tight. Shakhter are vulnerable early, conceding 24% of their goals in the first fifteen minutes, but Lida have not conceded in that period themselves (0%).

Risks

A Shakhter victory would require a significant shift in their defensive solidity. They have conceded sixteen goals in five games, and if they can contain Lida's attack for ninety minutes while capitalising on their own late-game tendency, the result flips. The 1:2 prediction also depends on Lida maintaining their current form; they have already lost once away this season, so a return to that pattern would undermine the visitors' chances. The head-to-head record shows only one meeting (Lida 2:1 on 2 May 2026).