Šiauliai vs Sūduva Marijampolė: match prediction on 30 August 2026

Sūduva Marijampolė to win. The visitors sit top of the A Lyga with 42 points after 23 matches and have won four of their last five games, conceding just one goal in that run. Confidence: 65%.

The gulf in the table tells the story. Sūduva lead with 42 points, Šiauliai sit ninth with 16. The visitors have played two fewer matches, but their point return of 11 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses shows consistency Šiauliai cannot match. The home side have lost 15 of their 25 games, a record that leaves them in a relegation battle with barely a month of the season remaining.

Recent form makes the gap even starker. Šiauliai managed just three points from their last five games, scoring five and conceding 12. Their only win came at home against Panevėžys 1-0 on 17 August; since then they have lost 0-3 away to TransINVEST Vilnius and 3-4 at home to Džiugas Telšiai. Sūduva, by contrast, have kept clean sheets in three of their last five and scored 12 goals while conceding one. Their only blemish was a 0-0 draw at home to TransINVEST Vilnius on 6 July.

The model expects Sūduva to score more, though not by a margin that guarantees victory. Šiauliai are projected to net one goal, Sūduva 1.8. The draw probability sits at 23%, both teams to score at 52%. The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 at 11%, 1-1 at 11% and 0-2 at 10%. Sūduva's attacking pattern shows 41% of their goals coming in the final 15 minutes, while Šiauliai have conceded 22% of their goals in that same period. That timing could prove decisive.

A draw suits Šiauliai's survival hopes, and given how they tend to run the clock down in tight games, that is the main threat to the prediction. If the home side can frustrate Sūduva through the first half and avoid conceding early, the visitors may struggle to break through. The model's figures are computed from goals scored and conceded over many simulated versions of the match; they know nothing of injuries or of the fixture list. If Šiauliai can contain Sūduva's late surge, the visitors' advantage evaporates.