Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia: match prediction on 2 September 2026

Levski Sofia are the clear favourites for this derby. The visitors are unbeaten in six league matches, sit top of the table, and have won four of the last eight meetings between these sides. I'm backing Levski, but that changes if Slavia's home record against Levski in recent years—three wins in eight H2H meetings—translates into a tactical edge, or if the visitors' early-game vulnerability to goals is exploited in the opening 15 minutes.

Levski Sofia have taken 18 points from six matches, winning every game. Slavia Sofia sit eighth with seven points from one win, four draws and a loss. The gap is 11 points, and Levski's unbeaten run includes victories over Botev Plovdiv 3:1 and Spartak Varna 6:0 in the league, plus a narrow 1:0 win away at Kairat Almaty in the Champions League. Slavia's results are more modest: a 3:0 win over Botev Vratsa, three draws and a 0:1 defeat at Arda Kardzhali.

Levski's last five matches produced three wins, one draw and one loss, with 10 goals scored and five conceded. Slavia's five matches yielded one win, three draws and one loss, with six goals scored and four conceded. The visitors have also competed in the Champions League, drawing 0:0 at home against AEK Athens before losing 4:0 away. Slavia have played no European football this season.

Over the past eight meetings, Slavia have won three times, Levski four times, with one draw. The most recent encounter on 4 December 2025 ended 2:0 to Slavia at home, but before that Levski won 2:0 in August 2025 and 3:3 in March 2025. Slavia's home advantage has not been a consistent shield.

Slavia's expected goals are 0.8, Levski's 1.4. The draw probability sits at 27%, both teams to score at 43%, and over three goals at 40%. The three most likely scorelines are 0:1 at 15%, 1:1 at 12% and 0:2 at 11%. Slavia score heavily between the 31st and 60th minute—28% and 33% of their goals respectively—but go silent from the 61st to the 75th. Levski are most dangerous late, with 35% of their goals coming after the 75th minute. Both sides concede most in the final quarter of an hour, Slavia 42% and Levski 30%.

Team averages show Levski controlling possession at 59% compared to Slavia's 44%, and creating more chances with 4.7 shots on target versus 4.1. Levski also take more corners at 5.1 to 3.5 and commit fewer fouls, averaging 1.4 yellow cards per match against Slavia's 2.5. The visitors have top scorers Armstrong Inya Oko-Flex and Reinaldo with five goals each, while Slavia's Emil Svetoslavov Stoev leads with three.

A draw suits the visitors in one scenario—if they manage the game and run the clock down, the 27% probability becomes a real threat. Slavia's late-game vulnerability in conceding could also work against them if Levski press high after the hour mark.

Levski's form, position and recent dominance in this fixture make them the clear choice, even if Slavia's home record in the derby provides occasional resistance.