Champions League
Prediction for Kolstad — HC Kriens-Luzern
57%
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Prediction for
Win: FK Rabotnicki
76%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Average bookmaker line (23)
Odds range
1.58 — 1.90
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 3
Bookmaker market
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 22 Sep, 14:39At 1.83 the market prices a 49% chance; I see 76, a 27-point gap. The line dropped from 1.85 on 23 September, but the movement is small. The bookmakers are pricing a low-scoring game where the visitors scrape a win. They have not accounted for the gap in form. FK Rabotnicki are unbeaten in the league. Teteks have drawn three of five matches. The price is good because the market is looking at the table position and ignoring the performance.
FK Rabotnicki sit 6th with 9 points from 4 games. They have won 3 and lost 1. Teteks are 11th with 6 points from 5 fixtures. Their record is 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss. The visitors have scored 5 goals and conceded 3. The hosts have scored 6 and conceded 10. Teteks’ defence is the difference.
The head-to-head record is not kind to Teteks. There have been three meetings in recent years. FK Rabotnicki have won all of them. The last game was a 0:3 cup defeat for the hosts. Before that, a 4:1 friendly loss and a 2:0 friendly loss. Teteks have not won a single game against them.
The model projects 3.9 goals for FK Rabotnicki against 0.6 for Teteks, leaving a 7% draw chance and 83% for three-plus goals. The most likely scoreline is 0:3 at 11%. The next is 0:4 at 10%. The market expects a tighter result. The data points to a clear victory. The visitors are dangerous in the first 15 minutes, scoring 26% of their goals then. Teteks concede heavily in the first half.
The tip breaks if FK Rabotnicki sit back and run the clock. A draw suits the visitors if they sit deep and run the clock down. That is the main threat. If the home side gets a red card early, the model's expectation of a clean win breaks. The visitors might then play for a draw.