Tigres FC vs Bogota FC: match prediction on 14 September 2026

Tigres FC to win on Sunday. The home side have won four of their last five matches while Bogota FC have lost four of theirs, and the model puts Tigres FC at 1.2 expected goals against Bogota's 0.7.

Tigres FC sit eighth with 20 points from 15 games, Bogota sixth with 23. Over the past five rounds Tigres collected 12 points from four victories, while Bogota managed just 3 points from a single win. The home side's run includes a 2:0 away win over Orsomarso on 10 September and a 3:0 home victory against Real Cartagena on 29 August. Bogota's recent results read differently: a 0:2 home loss to Ind. Yumbo on 4 September, followed by a 1:2 defeat away at Depor FC two days later. The visitors have not kept a clean sheet in five matches and have conceded eight goals in that span.

These sides have met 14 times in recent years. Tigres FC have won seven, drawn three, and lost four. The last encounter on 11 March 2026 ended 1:0 to Tigres at Bogota's ground. The pattern shows Tigres winning away and at home, with only one draw in the last six meetings. Bogota's sole victory in that period came 1:0 at home in September 2025.

Tigres FC score heavily late, with 29% of their 21 goals arriving between 76 and 90 minutes. They also find the net in the second half of the first period, accounting for 19%. Bogota show a different pattern: 30% of their 20 goals come in the 61-75 minute window and another 30% in the final 15 minutes. Both sides are vulnerable early. Bogota have conceded 29% of their 24 goals in the opening 15 minutes, while Tigres have let in 20% between 16 and 30 minutes. The model expects low-scoring action, with a 31% chance of a draw and only a 28% probability of three or more goals in total.

Tigres FC will play without two men. K. Mosquera carries a suspension from a red card on 10 September. O. Presiado is also unavailable after accumulating one red card and two yellow cards. Bogota are missing H. Sandoval Lasso, who is suspended following a red card and a yellow card.

Bogota’s early vulnerability is their only opening. The visitors have conceded 29% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes, but they also score 10% of theirs in that same window. If they catch Tigres FC cold and take an early lead, the home side's late-game strength may not come into play. A draw suits Bogota given their tendency to run the clock down in the final quarter, and that remains the main threat to a home victory.