Vestri vs Throttur Reykjavik: match prediction on 5 September 2026

Throttur Reykjavik are the clear favourites on the line at 2.19, while Vestri sit at 2.63 across 35 bookmakers. The market has priced the visitors to win with 41% probability, compared to 34% for the hosts and 25% for a draw. Throttur carry a 13-point cushion over Vestri and have the superior attacking output to match it.

Vestri have taken only 6 points from their last 5 matches, winning twice and losing three times. Their results read 2:0, 0:2, 1:0, 0:2, 1:3 — two home victories but nothing to build confidence away from home. Throttur Reykjavik have collected 7 points in the same span, with a 7:2 win over AEgir Þorlákshöfn and a 3:1 victory against Fylkir showing they can score freely. Their recent form includes two wins, one draw, and two losses, but the goal difference tells the real story: 12 scored, 9 conceded versus Vestri's 4 scored, 7 conceded.

Throttur occupy third place with 40 points from 21 matches, while Vestri languish in eighth with 27 points from 22 fixtures.

Vestri strike first (27% of goals in opening 15 mins); Throttur leak late (44% conceded after 75 mins).

The model expects 1.4 goals from Vestri and 1.8 from Throttur Reykjavik. A draw carries 23% probability, both teams scoring 63%, and three or more goals 62%. The most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 10%, 1:2 at 9%, and 0:1 at 7%. Vestri’s early strike rate is the only lever left.

Recent meetings do not favour Vestri at home. The last encounter on 27 June 2026 ended 1:1 in Reykjavik, while a League Cup fixture in March 2025 saw Throttur win 1:0 away. A draw suits Throttur Reykjavik, and given how they manage games late in matches, that is the main threat to this prediction.

The pick for Throttur Reykjavik falls apart if Vestri capitalise on their early scoring habit and take a lead before the visitors can impose their tempo.