Viimsi vs FC Tallinn: match prediction on 3 September 2026

Viimsi to win at 1.27 with 65% confidence. The hosts carry a 22-point advantage over FC Tallinn and have won four of their last five outings, while the visitors have failed to secure a victory in that same span. The bookmakers have priced the home side as firm favourites and the line has not budged since opening.

Viimsi sit second in Esiliiga A on 47 points from 14 wins, five draws and seven defeats. Their recent run has been one of the strongest in the division, producing 17 goals while conceding just five. They opened the scoring in three of those five matches and ran the show in the second half of their 3:1 win at Tartu Welco on 29 August. The goal distribution tells a story of late dominance: 31% of their 42 goals have come in the final 15 minutes, and they have been most dangerous between the 46th and 60th minute when 24% of their goals fall.

FC FC Tallinn occupy ninth place with 25 points from six wins, seven draws and 13 losses. They have not won in five games, collecting two points from two draws and three defeats. Their attacking output has dried up — 3 goals in 5 matches compared to Viimsi's 17 — and they have conceded 7. The visitors have struggled to create chances, averaging 4.9 shots on target per game over their last 10 matches against Viimsi's 7.2. They have also lost 26% of their goals in the closing period, suggesting they fade when the game is within reach.

The head-to-head record favours Viimsi with 10 wins from 16 meetings, though FC Tallinn have taken two victories in 2026, including a 5:1 win at home in April. The model expects Viimsi to score 2.2 goals and Tallinn 1.0, with the most likely outcomes being 2:0 and 2:1, each at 10%. A draw carries only a 20% probability, and the model projects 61% chance of three or more goals in total.

This conclusion stops holding if FC Tallinn manage to run the clock down and secure a draw. The visitors have drawn two of their last five matches and know that a point keeps them alive in their fight against relegation. With 13 losses already on their record, they have little to lose and everything to gain from a defensive approach. If they can contain Viimsi's late surge — which accounts for 31% of the hosts' goals — and take the match to extra time or penalties, the home side's advantage evaporates.