Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Willem II vs Heerenveen: match prediction on 30 August 2026
Willem II
Heerenveen
Prediction for
Win: Heerenveen
47%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
24%
1
23%
X
53%
2
Average bookmaker line (48)
3.86
1
4.13
X
1.77
2
Odds range
1.70 — 1.82
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 13:33- Виллем II — 16. place, 0 points after 2 games (0 wins, 2 losses)
- Херенвен — 9. place, 4 points after 3 games (1 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses)
- Виллем II, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Херенвен, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, Виллем II — 0, Херенвен — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Willem II
LLDLD
2 draws · 3 losses
Heerenveen
WDLDL
1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
Head to head 6
1Willem II
1Draw
4Heerenveen
- 4 Apr 2025Heerenveen — Willem II3:1
- 8 Dec 2024Willem II — Heerenveen1:2
- 5 Mar 2022Willem II — Heerenveen0:0
- 21 Nov 2021Heerenveen — Willem II2:1
- 13 Mar 2021Willem II — Heerenveen3:1
Bookmaker market
48
bookmakers counted
1.77
Average bookmaker line
1.70 — 1.82
Odds range
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 13:33Heerenveen to win at 1.770, backed by their superior league position and Willem II's double defeat to start the campaign. The visitors have taken four points from three games while the hosts remain on zero after two losses, and the market has priced them as clear favourites with 53% probability once margin is removed.
A difficult start for the hosts
Willem II sit 16th in the table with nothing to show from their opening two Eredivisie fixtures. They lost 1-4 at home to NEC Nijmegen and were beaten 4-1 away at GO Ahead Eagles, conceding eight goals without reply. Their recent form shows two wins and a draw in friendlies, but those results do not translate to the league stage where they have struggled to contain opposition attacks.
Heerenveen's steady progress
The visitors occupy 9th place with four points from three matches. Their record reads one win, one draw, one defeat — a 1-0 victory over FC Twente, a 2-2 draw with Ajax, and a 0-2 home loss to PEC Zwolle. Heerenveen have scored ten goals and conceded ten across their last five games, showing they can find the net but also leave themselves vulnerable defensively.
Recent meetings favour the away side
Over the past six encounters, Willem II have won twice and lost four times. The most recent results were a 1-2 defeat at home in December 2024 and a 3-1 loss away in April 2025. Heerenveen have not lost to Willem II in their last two league meetings, and the pattern suggests they know how to exploit the hosts' defensive weaknesses.
What the model sees
The simulation expects Willem II to score 1.4 goals and Heerenveen 1.8, with a 23% probability of a draw and 61% that both teams find the net. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 at 11%, 1-2 at 9%, and 0-1 at 8%. Willem II concede half their goals between the 61st and 75th minutes, a period where Heerenveen have been active, scoring 19% of their own goals in the same window.
When the prediction fails
A draw suits Heerenveen's approach to games, and if they choose to manage the result rather than pursue a win, the away victory falls away. Willem II would also need to improve dramatically in the final quarter of an hour, where they have conceded 50% of their goals this season, to stay in contention.