Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Young Boys II vs Luzern II: match prediction on 30 August 2026
Young Boys II
Luzern II
Prediction for
Win: Young Boys II
50%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
50%
1
19%
X
30%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 14:01- Янг Бойз II — 15. place, 3 points after 4 games (1 wins, 3 losses)
- Люцерн II — 13. place, 3 points after 4 games (1 wins, 3 losses)
- Янг Бойз II, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Люцерн II, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Янг Бойз II — 3, 1 draws, Люцерн II — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Young Boys II
WLLDW
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Luzern II
LLLDL
1 draw · 4 losses
Head to head 8
3Young Boys II
1Draw
4Luzern II
- 28 FebYoung Boys II — Luzern II3:2
- 16 Aug 2025Luzern II — Young Boys II0:4
- 22 Mar 2025Young Boys II — Luzern II1:0
- 14 Sep 2024Luzern II — Young Boys II3:1
- 16 Mar 2024Luzern II — Young Boys II4:1
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 14:01I see grounds for a home win here. Young Boys II need to build on their 3:2 victory over Luzern II in February, and the model backs them at 2.4 expected goals against 1.9 for the visitors.
The table tells a flat story: both sides sit on 3 points after 4 matches with identical records of 1 win and 3 losses. Young Boys II occupy 15th place, Luzern II 13th. The difference emerges in form. Young Boys II have faltered badly since their opening-day 3:1 win over Lugano II, losing three straight league games and conceding 11 goals in that run. They scored just 2 against Breitenrain and 0 at Bulle. Luzern II show more movement. Two victories over Solothurn and YF Juventus in July and August give them momentum, even if they have also dropped points against Bulle and Lugano II.
Young Boys II hold a narrow edge in recent head-to-head meetings. They won 3:2 in February at home and 4:0 away in August 2025. Luzern II claimed victories at 3:1 in September 2024 and 4:1 in March 2024. Across 8 matches the tally reads 3 wins for Young Boys II, 1 draw, 4 for Luzern II. The visitors have won more, but the home side has taken the last two encounters and seems to have found a way past them recently.
Goal timing offers another angle. Young Boys II score heavily in the opening 15 minutes and again after 76 minutes, accounting for 56% of their 18 goals. They are weakest between 61 and 75 minutes, where just 6% fall. Luzern II follow a different pattern: 33% of their 15 goals arrive after 76 minutes, with only 7% in the opening quarter-hour. They concede 25% of their 16 goals in the first 15 minutes. If Young Boys II strike early, they could put the visitors under pressure when Luzern II are most vulnerable defensively.
The model points to 2:1 as the most likely scoreline at 8%, followed by 2:2 at 7% and 1:1 at 6%. Both teams to score carries 77% probability, and 3 or more goals sits at 80%. This outcome stops holding if Luzern II avoid conceding in the opening 15 minutes and keep the game tight until their own late surge. A draw suits the visitors given how they run the clock down, and that is the main threat.