Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Makhachkala: match prediction on 2 September 2026

Zenit Saint Petersburg to win at 78% confidence. The model places their expected goals at 1.7 against Makhachkala's 0.5, and the visitors have lost four of their last five away fixtures.

Zenit's recent record shows more resilience than their results suggest. They beat Fakel Voronezh 1:0 away on 29 August, then lost 0:2 at Spartak Moscow two days later. Before that came a goalless Cup draw with Krylya Sovetov and a 3:0 home victory over Dinamo Moscow. The only blemish was a 1:2 defeat to Rodina Moskva on 9 August. Makhachkala managed just one win in five — a 4:1 away victory against Krylya Sovetov on 16 August. They lost 1:3 at Rubin, 0:1 at home to Krasnodar, and 1:3 away at Dinamo Moscow.

The head-to-head tells a clearer story. Zenit have won six of seven meetings, with one draw. The most recent competitive encounter was a 1:0 Cup victory on 18 March 2026. Before that, Zenit won 4:0 at home in August 2025 and 1:0 away in April 2026. Friendlies produced a 2:0 win and a 1:1 draw in July 2026. Makhachkala have not won any of these seven fixtures.

The model expects Zenit to control the match. Their 1.7 expected goals versus Makhachkala's 0.5 suggests a low-scoring victory. The most likely scoreline is 1:0 at 18%, followed by 2:0 at 16%. A 0:0 draw sits at 10%. Both teams to score comes in at 33%, while three or more goals reach 39%. The draw probability is 22%.

Zenit's attacking pattern creates risk. They score 45% of their goals in the final 15 minutes but concede 63% in that same period. Makhachkala are vulnerable late too — 38% of their conceded goals arrive after the 75th minute. If Zenit cannot convert their early dominance, a late collapse would make the draw the more likely outcome.

The visitors carry disciplinary concerns. Mohamed Azzi has four yellow cards and is one booking away from suspension. Zenit have three players with recent red cards — Igor Diveev, Maksim Glushenkov, and Pedro — though none face immediate bans. The match kicks off at 15:30 UTC on 2 September.