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Benfica vs Avanca: match prediction on 23 September 2026
Benfica
Avanca
Prediction for
Win: Benfica
75%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
75%
1
25%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 21 Sep, 20:43- Бенфика — 4. place, 8 points after 4 games (2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
- Аванка — 12. place, 4 points after 4 games (0 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses)
- Бенфика, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Аванка, last 5 games: 0 wins, 1 draws, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Бенфика — 8, Аванка — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Benfica
WWLLW
3 wins · 2 losses
Avanca
LLLLL
5 losses
Head to head 9
8Benfica
0Draw
0Avanca
- 7 FebAvanca — Benfica—:—
- 13 Dec 2025Avanca — Benfica25:34
- 1 Oct 2025Benfica — Avanca48:31
- 14 Feb 2025Avanca — Benfica25:39
- 18 Oct 2024Benfica — Avanca32:28
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 21 Sep, 20:43Prediction: Benfica win.
Benfica arrive in Lisbon carrying an unbeaten league record — two wins and two draws across four matches — while Avanca have managed nothing but draws this season, and the gap in quality shows in every meeting between them. Benfica have won all five completed head-to-head matches, including a 48:31 victory in October 2025.
Avanca's path to four draws has been a grind. They lost 26:27 at home to ABC Braga on 19 September, then 30:36 to Santo Tirso eight days later. The only point came in a 36:36 friendly against Aguas Santas on 21 August. Against league opposition they have scored 99 goals and conceded 151 across four matches — conceding 37.8 per match.
Benfica's recent form is less predictable. They lost 27:32 away to Sporting on 19 September and 33:37 at home to Porto on 12 September, but before those defeats they won 37:30 away at Povoa and 34:23 at home against Aguas Santas. In those five matches they scored 155 goals and conceded 153 — a far more balanced picture than Avanca's defensive struggles.
Benfica 37, Avanca 25 — a margin of 11.6 goals that aligns with the historical pattern. Draw probability: 0%.