Celje vs Ivancna Gorica: match prediction on 2 September 2026

Celje to win

Celje are expected to win. Celje have dominated this fixture for years and the model supports this based on their superior head-to-head record. The prediction holds at 75% confidence, but it stops being reliable if Ivancna Gorica manages to keep the score tight and exploit any defensive lapses from the hosts.

The head-to-head record tells the story. In eight meetings over recent years, Celje have won seven and drawn once. Ivancna Gorica have never taken the points. The most recent result was 35:31 at Celje's ground in November 2025, and before that 34:24 away in September the same year. Celje have won every match in this series.

Celje's recent form shows two wins and three losses across five matches. The victories came against Slovan, 41:39 at home and 42:38 away. The defeats were all in friendlies against stronger opposition — Tatabanya, Kielce, and Veszprem. The league results suggest they remain competitive domestically.

Ivancna Gorica have managed one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. They beat Mokerc 32:22 at home in May but lost to Skofljica and RD Ribnica away and at home respectively. The draw against Radovljica, 27:27, showed they can compete but not close out results. They have scored 148 goals and conceded 144 in that span.

The model expects Celje to score 31 goals and Ivancna Gorica 26. That gap of nearly five goals suggests the home side should control the match. The draw probability is negligible, and the model indicates a high likelihood of Celje winning by a significant margin.

What matters most is that Ivancna Gorica have never won here. That history weighs heavily, and the model's expectations align with it. Celje need to maintain their attacking output and avoid the defensive errors that cost them in the friendlies.