Folló HK Women vs Larvik HK Women: match prediction on 2 September 2026

Larvik have won all six meetings in recent years, and the margin of victory has never been anything less than five goals. Folló HK Women have yet to turn the tide in this fixture, and the expected goals figure of 26 to 31.1 does not suggest a reversal is imminent.

Recent form on its own would suggest a tighter contest. Both sides have won three and lost two in their last five matches, but the quality of opposition and the goal margins tell a different story. Folló's results include a 21:28 defeat to Storhamar and a 27:30 loss to Aker in competitive fixtures, while Larvik's losses came against Viborg (22:31) and Storhamar (28:30) — both strong opponents. Larvik's 55:13 victory over Glassverket in the NM Cup Women shows their ceiling is higher, and the 167:126 goal ratio across five games reflects that.

The xG projection for Folló is 26 and 31.1 for Larvik, pointing to a visitors' win by roughly five goals. The 0% draw probability and 0% both-teams-to-score figure follow from the data: Larvik have kept clean sheets or conceded very few in their dominant run, and Folló's attacking output has not consistently reached the level needed to trouble top sides.

This conclusion stops holding if Folló produce a performance closer to their 39:26 friendly win over Gjovik, or if Larvik rotate significantly ahead of a crucial league fixture. A draw would also undermine the prediction, though the model assigns 0% probability to that outcome. The visitors have not won away from home in this fixture either, but their overall dominance in the head-to-head suggests they can impose themselves regardless of venue.