Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
Read more
MK Beer Sheva vs MK Holon: match prediction on 18 September 2026
MK Beer Sheva
MK Holon
Prediction for
Win: MK Holon
62%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
38%
1
62%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 16 Sep, 12:13- Бейтар Беэр-Шева, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- МК Холон, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 4 games, Бейтар Беэр-Шева — 0, МК Холон — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
MK Beer Sheva
LLLWL
1 win · 4 losses
MK Holon
WLLWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 4
0MK Beer Sheva
0Draw
4MK Holon
- 10 AprMK Beer Sheva — MK Holon31:41
- 11 FebMK Beer Sheva — MK Holon29:33
- 17 Nov 2025MK Holon — MK Beer Sheva42:26
- 9 Oct 2024MK Holon — MK Beer Sheva43:28
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 16 Sep, 12:13MK Holon are the clear favourites here, and the data leaves little room for doubt. They have won every meeting in the last four years, they are in better form, and the model puts them 5.5 goals ahead on average.
Three wins and two losses gives them 9 points, while the home side managed just one victory from five outings for 3 points. MK Holon scored 165 goals and conceded 156 across that run. MK Beer Sheva managed 167 for and 199 against.
Complete dominance in the head-to-head
They have not lost to MK Beer Sheva in half a decade. Four meetings, four wins for the visitors. The most recent clash at this venue ended 31-41 in April, and before that 29-33 in February. Away from home they won 42-26 in November 2023 and 43-28 in October 2024.
Form and momentum
MK Holon came off two European Cup victories over Albatro in September, winning 29-23 away and 36-32 at home. Their Division 1 form has been mixed — two narrow defeats to Maccabi Le Zion in April, but they beat Bnei Herzliya 35-31 on the road. MK Beer Sheva lost four of their last five league matches, including heavy defeats at home to Maccabi Le Zion (24-46) and Nes Tziona (40-46). Their only win came away at Hapoel Kiriyat 41-32.
Model projection
The simulation expects MK Beer Sheva to score 32.6 points and MK Holon 38.1. That 5.5-goal margin is consistent with what we have seen at this fixture. The model gives the draw a 0% probability and puts the likelihood of a three-goal-plus margin at 0%, which reads as a near-certain away victory. The home team over/under sits at 0%, which in basketball simply means one side will not hit the expected total — the model expects Holon to clear it comfortably.
When the prediction fails
A draw would be the only scenario that breaks this conclusion, and the model rates that at 0%. If the home side somehow holds the visitors to under 38 points while exceeding their own 32.6 expectation, the result flips. That would require a complete reversal of the pattern we have seen four times already.
Confidence: 85%