Volleyligaen Women
Prediction for Farum Women — Aalborg Volley Women
70%
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Nes Tziona
Rehovot
Prediction for
Win: Nes Tziona
57%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 2
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 11 Oct, 16:25Nes Tziona win 33-32. The model predicts the home side will score 1.5 more goals, and I follow that to a one-goal victory. The prediction fails if Rehovot exploits the home side's defensive fragility in the closing minutes.
Both sides enter this fixture without a defeat this season. Nes Tziona sit 12th after two matches, collecting 0 points from two draws. Rehovot occupy 8th after three games, gathering 2 points from one win and two draws.
Nes Tziona have won one, drawn one, lost three, scoring 177 and conceding 191. Rehovot match that pattern exactly—one victory, one draw, three defeats, 158 goals for and 184 against.
The two meetings this season both ended level. On 19 January Nes Tziona drew 34-34 at home. On 6 April Rehovot also drew 38-38 at home. The model expects 33.6 goals for Nes Tziona and 32.1 for Rehovot, a margin of 1.5 that points to a narrow home success.
A draw suits the visitors, and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. If Rehovot can absorb pressure and survive until the final period without conceding, the model is wrong. The home side must attack early rather than play conservatively.
Outcome: Nes Tziona 33-32 Rehovot
Confidence: 52%