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50%
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Tyresö Handboll Women vs Alingsås HK Women: match prediction on 29 August 2026
Tyresö Handboll Women
Alingsås HK Women
Prediction for
Win: Alingsås HK Women
56%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
44%
1
56%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 27 Aug, 23:03- Тирё Хандболл Женщины — 2. place, 4 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Алингсос ХК Женщины — 3. place, 2 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
- Тирё Хандболл Женщины, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Алингсос ХК Женщины, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Тирё Хандболл Женщины — 3, 1 draws, Алингсос ХК Женщины — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Tyresö Handboll Women
WWLDL
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Alingsås HK Women
LDWWW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Head to head 7
3Tyresö Handboll Women
1Draw
3Alingsås HK Women
- 6 SepAlingsås HK Women — Tyresö Handboll Women33:25
- 14 FebTyresö Handboll Women — Alingsås HK Women23:29
- 11 Oct 2025Alingsås HK Women — Tyresö Handboll Women33:23
- 11 Jan 2025Alingsås HK Women — Tyresö Handboll Women30:30
- 14 Sep 2024Tyresö Handboll Women — Alingsås HK Women29:27
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 27 Aug, 23:03Alingsås HK Women win. The model puts them ahead on expected goals—27.6 to 25.5—and the service pick lands at 56% confidence. That margin is not large, but the recent head-to-head trend backs it: Alingsås won the last two meetings, 29:23 away in February and 33:23 at home in October 2025.
Tyresö sit second in the Swedish Cup with four points from three matches, two wins and a draw. Alingsås are third with two points, one win and two draws. The table position suggests Tyresö should be the side under pressure to deliver, yet their last five matches tell a different story. Two wins and three losses, 135 goals scored against 149 conceded. Alingsås have won three, drawn one, lost one, and outscored opponents 141 to 127.
The venue is not specified, but the most recent fixture was at Tyresö's ground. They also lost 27:26 away to Drott Halmstad in March.
The model's expected goals are marginal, but they align with the broader picture. Alingsås have won three of their last five, Tyresö only two. Alingsås have kept their defence tighter, conceding fewer goals overall. The service confidence of 56% reflects that this is not a blowout scenario; handball matches can swing on a single period or a quick run of goals.
This conclusion stops working if Tyresö find a way to control the tempo early. They have shown they can score heavily at home—35:31 against Aranas in August—but they also conceded 27 goals in that same match. If Alingsås open slowly and let Tyresö build a lead, the home side could grind out a result, but Alingsås have drawn twice already and know how to manage tight games.
The pick is Alingsås HK to win, with the understanding that the margin is slim and the match could go either way.