Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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RK Vardar 1961 vs MT Melsungen: match prediction on 9 September 2026
RK Vardar 1961
MT Melsungen
Prediction for
Win: MT Melsungen
63%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
37%
1
63%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 7 Sep, 16:03- Вардар, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- МТ Мельзунген, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 3 games, Вардар — 2, МТ Мельзунген — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
RK Vardar 1961
WWWWL
4 wins · 1 loss
MT Melsungen
WLWDW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Head to head 4
2RK Vardar 1961
0Draw
2MT Melsungen
- 10 SepMT Melsungen — RK Vardar 196133:31
- 24 FebRK Vardar 1961 — MT Melsungen37:33
- 26 Nov 2024RK Vardar 1961 — MT Melsungen32:30
- 15 Oct 2024MT Melsungen — RK Vardar 196134:18
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 7 Sep, 16:03MT Melsungen win at 63% confidence. The model projects Melsungen to score 30.7 goals against Vardar's 25.7, and the draw probability sits at 0%. Vardar have won their last five matches, but the numerical edge belongs to the German side.
Vardar have won every game since August. Their five victories brought 168 goals for and 123 against across friendlies and a Superleague fixture. The 39:27 win over Olympiacos and the 39:29 victory against Prilep show they can fire freely at home. But those results came against opposition that does not compete in the same tier as Melsungen's Bundesliga.
Melsungen's last five matches produced three wins, one draw and one loss. They drew 31:31 away at Gummersbach on 5 September and lost 31:33 to Fuchse Berlin on 27 August. Their away form in the Bundesliga has been inconsistent, yet they scored 31 goals in that Berlin defeat and 31 against Goppingen at home. The German side has shown they can keep pace with high-scoring encounters.
The head-to-head record shows Vardar leading 2-1 from three meetings in European competition. Both previous matches at Vardar's ground ended in home victories: 37:33 in February 2026 and 32:30 in November 2024. Melsungen's sole win came 34:18 at their own stadium in October 2024. The pattern suggests Vardar perform better on home soil, but the model's expectations point the other way.
The model's goal projections are the deciding factor here. Melsungen's 30.7 expected goals versus Vardar's 25.7 indicates a higher ceiling for the visitors. The 0% draw probability removes the possibility of a stalemate. The pick fails if Vardar match their home scoring rate from the previous encounters, where they consistently outscored Melsungen at their own arena.
The prediction hinges on Melsungen hitting their projected output. If Vardar's home record from the two European meetings proves more predictive than the current form data, the visitors could fall short. A scoreline matching either of those previous home results for Vardar would overturn this assessment.
Vardar's goal difference of +45 over five matches (168:123) is stronger than Melsungen's +24 (146:122). That disparity might suggest home advantage should prevail. Melsungen's higher expected output reflects their recent performances against Bundesliga opposition, which carries more weight in the calculation.