Aktobe vs Torpedo: match prediction on 28 September 2026

Torpedo win.

Aktobe's season has been defined by defeat. They sit ninth on zero points from 11 games, 0 wins, 0 draws, 11 losses. Their last five matches produced the same result: loss. Goals for and against in that run read 9:27. The most recent was a 1:9 hammering at home to Torpedo on 27 September. Before that came 0:2 away to Almaty, 2:5 away to Almaty, 3:5 at home to Nomad Astana, and 3:6 at home to Nomad Astana. They have not won a single game this season.

Torpedo's trajectory is the opposite. Four wins and one defeat in their last five matches, 12 points on the board. Their goal difference in that period is 23:11. The heavy loss came against Gornyak Rudny at home, 1:2 on 21 September. The other four were victories: 4:3 against Gornyak Rudny, 6:3 against Kulager, 3:2 against Kulager, and the 9:1 demolition of Aktobe. They are scoring freely and conceding sparingly.

The 27 September fixture ended 1:9. The Kazakhstan Cup meeting on 18 August was 1:3. Earlier Championship matches included a 5:1 win for Torpedo on 3 February, a 6:2 victory on 2 February, a 3:2 win on 15 December, and a 6:1 triumph on 14 December. Aktobe have not beaten Torpedo in any competition over this period.

The model expects Aktobe to score 1.7 goals and Torpedo 4.5. The draw probability sits at 10%, both teams to score at 81%, and three or more goals at 94%. The three most likely scorelines are 1:4 at 6%, 1:5 at 5%, and 1:3 at 5%. These figures reflect the scoring patterns observed in the recent H2H encounters and Aktobe's defensive record.

A Torpedo victory is the only outcome that fits the data.

Confidence: 65%