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Almaty vs Gornyak Rudny: match prediction on 15 October 2026
Almaty
Gornyak Rudny
Prediction for
Win: Gornyak Rudny
55%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
29%
1
16%
X
55%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 14 Oct, 15:45- Алматы — 7. place, 0 points after 18 games (9 wins, 9 losses)
- Горняк Рудный — 4. place, 0 points after 18 games (12 wins, 6 losses)
- Алматы, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Горняк Рудный, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 19 games, Алматы — 10, Горняк Рудный — 9
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Almaty
LLWLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Gornyak Rudny
LWLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 32
18Almaty
0Draw
14Gornyak Rudny
- 16 OctAlmaty — Gornyak Rudny5:2
- 12 OctAlmaty — Gornyak Rudny5:2
- 11 OctAlmaty — Gornyak Rudny0:3
- 25 JanGornyak Rudny — Almaty7:3
- 24 JanGornyak Rudny — Almaty5:2
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 14 Oct, 15:45Gornyak Rudny to win. The visitors carry a stronger winning record and the model places them ahead on expected goals, but the conclusion stops holding if Almaty match their recent home scoring output of five goals in a single fixture.
Almaty sit seventh after 18 matches with nine wins and nine losses, while Gornyak Rudny occupy fifth place with twelve victories and six defeats. The points gap in the table shows nothing because the database records zero points for both clubs, so the standing relies purely on the win-loss tally. Gornyak Rudny have won two more fixtures than their opponents, which gives them the edge in consistency over the season so far.
Almaty's last five matches produced two wins and three defeats without a single draw. Their most recent outing saw them beat Gornyak Rudny 5:2 at home on 12 October, but before that they lost 0:3 to the same side in the same venue on 11 October. The visitors have been more prolific, scoring 18 goals in their last five while conceding 13, and they collected nine points from three wins.
The head-to-head record over the past year shows six meetings with Almaty winning three and Gornyak Rudny claiming three. The most recent clash on 12 October ended 5:2 in Almaty's favour, but the fixture before that saw Gornyak Rudny win 3:0 away from home. Earlier matches in January and December produced high-scoring affairs, including a 7:3 victory for Gornyak Rudny and a 5:2 win for Almaty at their own ground.
The model expects Almaty to score 2.6 goals and Gornyak Rudny 3.3, with a draw probability of 17 per cent and both teams scoring at 89 per cent. Three or more goals are projected at 93 per cent, and the most likely scorelines are 2:3 at 6 per cent, 2:2 at 5 per cent, and 3:3 at 5 per cent. These figures point toward a competitive, high-scoring encounter where the visitors have the slight advantage.
If Almaty replicate their five-goal performance from 12 October while the visitors fail to convert their expected 3.3 goals, the outcome shifts.