Amurskie Tigry vs Krylya Sovetov Moskva: match prediction on 26 September 2026

Amurskie Tigry to win. The model puts expected goals at 2.8 for each side, which points to a tight contest, but the most probable scorelines all list the home side ahead. A 3:2 result carries 5%, the same weight as a 2:3 defeat, and the slight edge goes to the hosts.

Tigry sit fifth after four matches with two wins and two losses. Their last five games brought two victories and three defeats, scoring 13 goals and conceding 15. Krylya Sovetov Moskva occupy sixth place following seven outings, also recording two wins and five losses. Their recent five matches mirror that pattern: two wins, three losses, 12 goals for and 14 against. Both sides have failed to produce a single draw in their last five outings.

In the most recent encounter on 24 September, Tigry edged a 3:2 victory at home. The model expects both teams to score at 88% probability and sees a 92% chance of three or more goals in total. A draw remains unlikely at 18%, which pushes the outcome toward one of the sides prevailing.

The model's scoreline distribution lists 2:2 at 6%, 3:2 at 5%, and 2:3 at 5%. Those three outcomes account for 16% of the simulation, with the home side winning in two of the three most likely scenarios.

This conclusion stops holding if the model's assumption about both teams finding the net breaks down. An 88% probability for both teams to score is high, but if one side fails to register, the 3:2 and 2:3 outcomes disappear and the draw probability rises above its current 18%. The prediction rests on that condition remaining intact.