Beibarys Atyrau vs Nomad Astana: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Nomad Astana to win. They already beat Beibarys Atyrau 3:1 yesterday and carry that momentum into today's second meeting. The model expects 3.5 goals for the hosts and 2.4 for the visitors, with a 16% chance of a draw.

Nomad Astana have not dropped points in five straight Championship matches, scoring 26 goals and conceding 10. Their recent run includes 5:3 and 6:3 victories away at Aktobe, plus 6:1 and 6:2 wins at home against Almaty. Beibarys Atyrau are struggling — two wins and three defeats in their last five, netting 16 goals while letting in nine. The hosts lost 0:1 and 1:3 at home this month before posting 8:1 and 6:1 away wins at Pavlodar.

Nomad Astana lead after nine matches with eight wins and one loss, while Beibarys Atyrau occupy eighth place with two victories and seven defeats. No draws for either side this season. Nomad press high; Beibarys drop deep and leave space. The draw probability sits at 16%, while both teams to score comes in at 88% and three or more goals at 93%. The most likely scorelines are 2:3 (6%), 2:4 (5%), and 2:2 (5%).

Head-to-head records favour the visitors heavily. Across 18 meetings, Nomad won 14 times while Beibarys claimed four. The first leg yesterday ended 3:1 to Nomad Astana. Before that, Beibarys lost 0:8 and 3:6 at home in January and October 2025 respectively. The only win for the hosts in recent years came 2:3 at home in September 2025. Nomad also won 4:0 away in September 2025 and 2:1 away in October 2024.

The model's expected goals figures — 2.4 for Beibarys Atyrau, 3.5 for Nomad Astana — point toward another high-scoring affair. The data does not suggest Beibarys will find a way to shut down Nomad's attack.

A draw would suit the visitors if they can run the clock down, but given how they approach matches — scoring freely and pushing forward — that is the main threat to the prediction. Nomad have not shown any inclination to sit back when they hold a lead.