CSKA Moscow vs SKA St. Petersburg: match prediction on 29 September 2026

CSKA Moscow are the favourites to win at home against SKA St. Petersburg on 29 September, backed by their five-match winning streak and the model's expectation of 2.7 goals to 2.3.

Form on both sides

CSKA have won every game since mid-September, scoring 18 and conceding just 5 across those five fixtures. They beat Sochi 4:0, Nizhny Novgorod 3:2, Vladivostok 4:3, Khabarovsk 2:0, and Lada 5:0 at home. SKA sit one place above them in the table after eight matches with seven victories and only a single defeat, but their last outing against Spartak Moscow ended 1:3 away from home. Their recent record reads 4 wins and 1 loss, with 18 goals for and 11 against.

The Azzi absence

Mohamed Azzi suffered a thigh contusion in a friendly against Nizhny Novgorod on 27 September and is expected to miss five to seven days. The injury comes at a critical moment for CSKA, who are building momentum at home. SKA have no reported absences, which gives them a slight edge in squad depth for this encounter.

Head-to-head pattern

The last six meetings between these sides have been evenly matched — three wins each. Earlier results include a 3:4 win for CSKA in St. Petersburg, a 2:3 SKA victory at home, a 6:3 SKA triumph on 3 January, and a 6:5 CSKA win on 25 December. These matches have been tight, often decided by a single goal margin.

What the model says

The statistical model projects 85% probability that both teams score and 88% that there will be three or more goals in total. A draw carries 19% likelihood. The three most likely scorelines are 2:2 at 6%, 3:2 at 6%, and 2:1 at 6%. CSKA's expected goals figure of 2.7 suggests they will most often score one or two goals, while SKA's 2.3 points to a similar output. This supports a high-scoring home victory.

When the prediction falls apart

The outcome stops being reliable if SKA adopt a conservative approach from the opening face-off. A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat to this prediction. If SKA manage to keep their defensive line organised and limit CSKA's early pressure, the home side could find themselves chasing the game, and the conclusion would no longer hold.