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70%
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Krasnoyarsk vs Olympia: match prediction on 9 October 2026
Krasnoyarsk
Olympia
Prediction for
Slight edge: Krasnoyarsk
47%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
47%
1
20%
X
33%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 8 Oct, 13:05- Красноярск — 30. place, 0 points after 11 games (2 wins, 9 losses)
- Олимпия — 26. place, 0 points after 11 games (3 wins, 8 losses)
- Красноярск, last 5 games: 0 wins, 5 losses
- Олимпия, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 4 games, Красноярск — 2, Олимпия — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Krasnoyarsk
LLWWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Olympia
LLWLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 4
2Krasnoyarsk
0Draw
2Olympia
- 25 JanOlympia — Krasnoyarsk2:1
- 26 Oct 2025Krasnoyarsk — Olympia2:1
- 10 Jan 2025Olympia — Krasnoyarsk5:2
- 12 Nov 2024Krasnoyarsk — Olympia5:2
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 8 Oct, 13:05Krasnoyarsk won against Olympia on 9 October. The home side's expected goals of 2.5 edge Olympia's 2.1, and Krasnoyarsk's recent struggles at home have not yet translated into a complete collapse of their attacking output. This conclusion stops holding if Olympia's two wins in five games signal a genuine shift in form that overrides the model's expectations.
Krasnoyarsk have lost every one of their last five matches, failing to take a single point. They scored 10 goals and conceded 18 across that run, including away defeats to Kristall Saratov 2:3, Dizel 0:2, Tambov 4:5, and Buran Voronezh 3:4, plus a 1:4 home loss to Omskie Krylia. The side sits 30th in the VHL table after 11 games with two wins and nine defeats, sharing zero points with Olympia.
Olympia have shown more resilience recently, winning two of their last five while dropping three. They scored 16 goals and conceded 15 during that period, with victories over AKM 4:3 and Ryazan 4:1 at home, alongside away losses to Hc Norilsk 2:3 and Bars 4:5.
The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced. Four meetings have produced two wins apiece: Krasnoyarsk 5:2 Olympia in November 2024, Olympia 5:2 Krasnoyarsk in January 2025, Krasnoyarsk 2:1 Olympia in October 2025, and Olympia 2:1 Krasnoyarsk in January 2026. Neither side has established dominance, and the most recent encounter ended with Olympia taking a narrow victory.
The model projects a high-scoring affair. Both teams to score carries an 81% probability, and 84% of simulated matches produce three or more goals. The most likely scorelines are 2:2 at 7%, 2:1 at 7%, and 1:1 at 6%. Krasnoyarsk's expected goals of 2.5 versus Olympia's 2.1 tilt the balance slightly toward the home side, even though the draw probability sits at just 20%.
A draw would suit Olympia's approach of managing games carefully, especially if they adopt a conservative strategy after their recent wins. The confidence in a Krasnoyarsk victory rests entirely on the model's expectation that the home side's attacking output will outpace the visitors', but if Olympia's form continues to improve, that edge disappears.