Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs Cherepovets: match prediction on 10 September 2026

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are the clear favourites against Severstal Cherepovets. The hosts have won four of their last five matches, scoring 17 goals and conceding just 8, while Cherepovets have managed only one victory in the same period and conceded nearly three times as many goals as they have scored. The model puts Lokomotiv's expected goals at 2.9 and Cherepovets's at 1.9, a gap that reflects the difference in recent performances.

Lokomotiv beat Kunlun 3:1 and Traktor Chelyabinsk 5:1 in their two KHL games so far this season, then added a 3:2 win over Cherepovets in a friendly. Their only defeat in the last five was a narrow 1:2 loss to Avangard Omsk away from home. Cherepovets opened their campaign with a 1:0 win against Lada, but have since lost to Salavat Ufa 2:3, Novosibirsk 0:4, Lokomotiv 2:3, and Nizhnekamsk 1:7.

The head-to-head record does not help Cherepovets. In six meetings since March 2025, Lokomotiv have won four and Cherepovets two. Lokomotiv won 4:1 at home in September 2025 and 3:0 in March 2025, while Cherepovets's only victories came against Lokomotiv at home 2:0 in November 2025 and 3:2 in a friendly last month. Lokomotiv have been the stronger side in the majority of these encounters.

Table positions are a little muddled in the database, but Lokomotiv sit at the top after two wins, while Cherepovets are somewhere between third and fifth after one win and one loss. The points tally matters less than the pattern: Lokomotiv have not dropped any yet, Cherepovets have already suffered a defeat.

The model's figures point to a Lokomotiv win with both teams scoring. Eighty per cent probability for both-teams-to-score and 86% for three or more goals suggest a relatively open match, but the most likely scoreline is 2:1 to Lokomotiv at 7%, followed by 3:1 at 6% and a 2:2 draw at 6%. The draw probability sits at just 17%.

Cherepovets replicate their defensive solidity from the Lada match, where they kept a clean sheet in a 1:0 win. That was one game, but it shows they can shut out an opponent when they sit back and defend deep. A draw suits Cherepovets — and given how they have tended to run matches down in recent losses, that is the main threat to Lokomotiv's expected victory.