Metallurg Novokuznetsk vs Izhevsk: match prediction on 13 October 2026

Metallurg Novokuznetsk to win, 72% confidence.

The hosts carry a six-point advantage in the head-to-head record and sit eight places above their visitors in the table. The model projects 3.4 goals for the hosts against 1.8 for the visitors, with the most probable outcome sitting at 3:1.

Metallurg Novokuznetsk have won three of their last five matches, scoring seven and conceding five. They kept two clean sheets against Olympia and Kristall Saratov in October, though they dropped points in consecutive away defeats to Tambov and Buran Voronezh. The side sits eighth after thirteen games with seven wins and six losses.

Izhevsk have taken six points from their last five outings, winning against AKM and Ryazan at home before losing three straight away matches. Their last five matches produced twelve goals for and fourteen against, a pattern that suggests defensive vulnerability on the road. They sit twenty-ninth after twelve games with three wins and nine losses.

The head-to-head record shows Metallurg Novokuznetsk winning four of six encounters since November 2023. The most recent meeting in January 2026 saw the visitors lose 2:3 in Izhevsk, while the hosts lost 1:3 at home in November 2025. The aggregate score across those six matches is 19:12 in favour of Metallurg Novokuznetsk.

Expected goals point toward a match with plenty of activity. The model estimates 89% probability of three or more goals and 81% for both teams to score. The three most likely scorelines are 3:1 at 7%, 3:2 at 6%, and 2:1 at 6%. A draw carries only 15% probability.

This conclusion stops holding if Izhevsk manage to keep a clean sheet. Their two wins in the last five both came at home, and in those matches they conceded just one goal across six hours of play. A scoreless or single-goal game would shift the model's expectations significantly, particularly given their 1.8 expected goals average.