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Mogilev vs Vitebsk: match prediction on 28 September 2026
Mogilev
Vitebsk
Prediction for
Win: Vitebsk
64%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
22%
1
14%
X
64%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 27 Sep, 16:35- Могилев — 9. place, 0 points after 6 games (3 wins, 3 losses)
- Витебск — 2. place, 0 points after 6 games (5 wins, 1 losses)
- Могилев, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Витебск, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 19 games, Могилев — 1, Витебск — 18
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Mogilev
LWLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Vitebsk
LLLLL
5 losses
Head to head 30
6Mogilev
0Draw
24Vitebsk
- 30 SepMogilev — Vitebsk0:2
- 2 AugVitebsk — Mogilev4:0
- 18 JanVitebsk — Mogilev6:2
- 16 JanVitebsk — Mogilev3:2
- 14 Oct 2025Mogilev — Vitebsk0:5
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 27 Sep, 16:35Vitebsk are expected to win. The visitors have dominated this fixture for years — 18 victories in 19 meetings — and their current form is strong. Five wins from five, conceding just seven goals while scoring 18. Mogilev sit 9th after six matches, with three defeats and a recent run of two losses on the bounce against Soligorsk. The model expects 2.2 goals for the hosts and 3.4 for the visitors.
Mogilev's recent results tell a mixed story. They beat Baranavichy 7-4 away and Yunost Minsk 5-3 at home, but those were offset by losses to the same Minsk side 2-3 and defeats to Soligorsk 1-4 and 0-3. The goal difference over five matches is 15 for, 17 against. Vitebsk have been different — five wins, zero draws, zero losses, with 18 goals for and 7 against. Their last five results all came at home, against Lokomotiv Orsha, Novopolotsk, and Brest. The visitors have not dropped points since their opening match.
The head-to-head record is one-sided. Vitebsk have won all six meetings in the past year. The most recent was a 4-0 victory in the Belarusian Cup on 2 August. Before that came a 6-2 win in the Extraliga in January, followed by another 3-2 victory at the same venue. Mogilev's only win in the last 19 meetings came years ago. The hosts have not beaten Vitebsk in over a decade.
Vitebsk sit 2nd after six matches with five wins and one loss. Mogilev are 9th with three wins and three losses. The visitors are pushing for a higher finish, while the hosts are in the bottom half of the table. Motivation will not be equal — Vitebsk have more to play for.
Expected goals are 2.2 for Mogilev and 3.4 for Vitebsk. The draw probability stands at 16%, while both teams to score comes in at 86%. Three or more goals are expected in 92% of simulations. The most likely scoreline is 2-3 at 6%, followed by 1-3 at 5% and 2-2 at 5%. If Mogilev score first, the visitors will need to respond quickly. If a red card comes early, the match could swing either way. Otherwise, Vitebsk's superiority should show through.