Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Preview

Senators Edge Maple Leafs in Goal-Fest

Ottawa Senators are slight favourites against Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday night, with the model pointing to a high-scoring affair. The home side's edge comes from their head-to-head record and the model's expectation of 3.6 goals compared to Toronto's 2.8.

Both teams have struggled recently. Ottawa have lost all five of their last matches, conceding 14 goals while scoring just 7. Toronto's form is equally concerning - five defeats, 23 goals conceded against 12 scored.

In 29 meetings, Ottawa have won 17 times to Toronto's 12. Their most recent encounter on 15 April saw Ottawa win 3:1 at home.

Ottawa have lost captain Brady Tkachak to Florida, while Toronto have strengthened with the arrival of goalkeeper Sergej Bobrovsky from the same club, impacting the tactical balance of the game.

The model expects 92% probability of both teams scoring, with 95% chance of three or more goals. The most likely scorelines are 3:2, 3:3 and 4:2, each at 5% probability.

If the visitors adopt a conservative strategy, the outcome could shift away from the model's prediction.

Key Factors

Recent Form - Ottawa: 0 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses (7 goals for, 14 against) - Toronto: 0 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses (12 goals for, 23 against)

Head-to-Head - 29 matches played - Ottawa: 17 wins - Toronto: 12 wins

Model Expectations - Ottawa goals: 3.6 - Toronto goals: 2.8 - Draw probability: 16% - Both teams to score: 92% - Three or more goals: 95%

Confidence: 65%

This confidence level reflects the unusual circumstances - both teams in poor form, significant roster changes, and the fixture appearing to fall during preseason rather than regular competition.