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Red Mashine vs SKA-1946: match prediction on 24 September 2026

MHL V.V. Petrov Arena Krasnogorsk Miss Match page
Red Mashine SKA-1946

Prediction for

Win: SKA-1946

71%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

12% 1
17% X
71% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 23 Sep, 17:04

SKA-1946 tipped at 71%

SKA-1946 are favourites to take all three points when they visit Red Mashine on 24 September. The model puts their victory probability at 71%, the visitors have won four of their last five, the hosts have lost four, and SKA-1946 have dominated both previous meetings, including a 12:0 thrashing at Red Mashine's home in November 2025.

SKA-1946's recent record reads 4 wins and 1 defeat across five matches, accumulating 12 points and sitting top of the MHL table. Their only slip came against Sakhalinskie Akuly at home, where they lost 3:1. Since then they have won four straight, including a 4:2 away victory over Red Mashine Atlant and three consecutive home wins — 3:1 against Amurskie Tigry, 3:0 over Tayfun, and 3:2 in a tighter affair with the same opponent. They have scored 14 goals and conceded just 8.

Red Mashine are in a different position entirely. After five matches they sit sixth with only 3 points from 1 win and 3 losses. Their last five games produced 10 goals for and 21 against. They have lost 2:3 to Din. St. Petersburg, 1:6 to Almaz, 1:4 to Red Mashine Atlant, and 0:4 to Amurskie Tigry, with their sole victory coming 6:4 against Krylya Sovetov Moskva.

The head-to-head record offers little comfort to the hosts. Two meetings have taken place, both won by SKA-1946. The most recent was the 12:0 demolition on 24 November 2025, and before that SKA-1946 won 4:2 away on 20 September 2025. The hosts have not scored in either encounter against SKA-1946's primary squad, and the margin of defeat in the first meeting alone suggests a significant gap in quality.

The model expects Red Mashine to score 1.4 goals and SKA-1946 to score 4.5, with a draw probability of just 8% and a 93% chance of three or more goals in the match. The three most likely scorelines are 1:4 (7%), 1:5 (6%), and 1:3 (6%). Both teams to score sits at 75%, which aligns with Red Mashine's ability to find the net in their lone victory but also with SKA-1946's consistent scoring.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 23 Sep, 17:04
  • Ред Машин — 6. place, 0 points after 4 games (1 wins, 3 losses)
  • СКА-1946 — 3. place, 0 points after 5 games (4 wins, 1 losses)
  • Ред Машин, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
  • СКА-1946, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
  • Head-to-head: 2 games, Ред Машин — 0, СКА-1946 — 2

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Red Mashine LLLWL 1 win · 4 losses
SKA-1946 WLWWL 3 wins · 2 losses

Head to head 2

0Red Mashine 0Draw 2SKA-1946
All head-to-head

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+