Södertälje SK vs Nybro Vikings IF: match prediction on 16 October 2026

Södertälje SK should win this Hockey Allsvenskan fixture on Friday evening. The hosts sit fifth after ten matches with six victories, while Nybro Vikings IF languish in thirteenth with only three wins. The gap in quality shows clearly in recent form: Södertälje have won four of their last five games, whereas Nybro have lost every single one of theirs. The model puts Södertälje's expected goals at 3.1 and Nybro's at 2.2, which points toward a home victory.

Södertälje's run of four wins in five matches has produced 18 goals for and 11 against. They beat Östersund IK 5:3 at home, MODO Hockey 4:1 away, Vimmerby HC 3:2 at home, and Mora 3:1 at home before suffering a narrow 3:4 defeat away to Kalmar on 14 October. The Kalmar match was the only blemish in an otherwise strong sequence, as they lost despite outshooting their opponents. Nybro have not managed a point in five games, scoring just 8 goals while conceding 21. Their losses came against AIK 3:5 at home, Leksand 1:7 away, Västerås IK 0:2 at home, Almtuna 2:4 away, and Oskarshamn IK 2:3 at home.

The head-to-head record across thirteen meetings favours Södertälje with nine wins to Nybro's four. Recent encounters have been more competitive than the overall tally suggests. The pattern of Södertälje dominating at home holds up.

The model's most likely scorelines cluster around a home victory. A 3:2 result carries 6% probability, followed by a 2:2 draw at 6%, and a 3:1 win for Södertälje at 5%. Eighty-six per cent of simulated matches see both teams score, and ninety per cent go over three goals. The draw probability sits at 18%, which is low enough to reinforce the home win as the base prediction.

Södertälje's six wins from ten matches place them in the upper half of the table, while Nybro's three victories from ten matches leave them firmly in the bottom third. The eight-place gap reflects the difference in consistency across the season. Nybro have not won anywhere in their last five outings, not even at home against AIK.

Nybro could upset if they replicate their January 4:0 win at home. That was a complete defensive display where they kept a clean sheet and scored four unanswered goals. If they can replicate that level of organisation and capitalise on any early opportunity, the home advantage evaporates. A single error at the wrong moment could swing the result.

Confidence sits at 58%. That is not high enough to dismiss the possibility of a surprise, but the weight of evidence points toward Södertälje. Nybro need something extraordinary to change course.