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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens: match prediction on 30 September 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs
Montreal Canadiens
Prediction for
Slight edge: Montreal Canadiens
46%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
38%
1
16%
X
46%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Sep, 00:18- Торонто Мэйпл Лифс, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Монреаль Канадиенс, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 24 games, Торонто Мэйпл Лифс — 14, Монреаль Канадиенс — 10
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Toronto Maple Leafs
WLLDL
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Montreal Canadiens
WWDLW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Head to head 49
29Toronto Maple Leafs
0Draw
20Montreal Canadiens
- 20 SepMontreal Canadiens — Toronto Maple Leafs4:3
- 20 SepToronto Maple Leafs — Montreal Canadiens1:4
- 10 MarMontreal Canadiens — Toronto Maple Leafs3:1
- 7 Dec 2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Montreal Canadiens1:2
- 23 Nov 2025Montreal Canadiens — Toronto Maple Leafs5:2
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Sep, 00:18The Montreal Canadiens are set to win, arriving with momentum and having dominated the recent head-to-head by winning both meetings on 19 September. Their expected goals figure of 3.4 sits above Toronto's 3.2, and the model's most likely scoreline is 2:3. This conclusion stops holding if Toronto's home advantage proves decisive or if the high probability of both teams scoring pushes the match into a draw.
Montreal's recent record speaks for itself. Four victories from five matches, with only a narrow 4:3 defeat at Ottawa on 26 September breaking their run. They scored 18 goals and conceded 12, averaging 3.6 goals per game. Toronto managed just two wins from five, including heavy losses to Montreal on 19 September — 1:4 at home and 3:4 away. Their goal difference of 15:14 tells a different story from Montreal's 18:12.
The pattern is clear across six meetings. Montreal won four of the last six encounters, including both matches on 19 September 2026. Going back further, Montreal also won 3:1 at home in March 2026, 5:2 at home in November 2025, and 4:2 away in September 2025. Toronto's two victories came in December 2025 and one other match.
Both teams sit at zero points after zero matches played. The season has not officially begun, which means these recent results are likely preseason fixtures. The real picture comes from form, not table position.
The model expects 3.2 goals for Toronto and 3.4 for Montreal. A 16% chance of a draw, 93% that both teams score, and 96% that there are three or more goals. The three most likely scorelines are 3:3 at 5%, 2:3 at 5%, and 3:2 at 4%. Montreal edges ahead in the most probable outcome.
A draw suits Montreal's approach to managing games — they can control tempo and protect a narrow advantage. Toronto's home advantage could level things if they find consistency from their recent losses. The high probability of both teams scoring means either side can find the net, but Montreal's current form makes them the more likely winner.