Tractor Chelyabinsk vs Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: match prediction on 15 September 2026

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win. The visitors have not lost in four matches and have won 15 of 19 meetings against Tractor Chelyabinsk. This prediction stops holding if Tractor score first and Lokomotiv chase the game, or if Krawzow returns from his contract dispute and shifts the home side's momentum.

One concern for Tractor is the status of Vitali Krawzow. The forward has been involved in a contract dispute following an Achilles tendon injury. He rejected a restructuring offer and his agent Nikolayev is seeking a compromise. Krawzow declined to sue and hopes for a transfer rather than returning to Tractor in February. His absence leaves a hole in the forward line.

Lokomotiv arrived in Chelyabinsk with a perfect record. Four wins from four games, 16 goals scored and only 7 conceded. They beat CSKA Moscow 3:2 away on 13 September, then won 2:1 at home against Cherepovets and 3:1 against Kunlun.

Tractor Chelyabinsk look less settled. They sit 10th after three matches with just one win and two defeats. Their last five games show two wins and three losses, with 11 goals for and 13 against. They won 4:3 away at Yekaterinburg on 7 September, but lost 1:2 to Bars Kazan and 1:5 to Lokomotiv in their other two KHL outings.

The model expects 2.3 goals for Tractor and 2.6 for Lokomotiv. A draw probability sits at 18%, while both teams to score comes in at 83%. Three or more goals total carry an 87% chance. The most likely scorelines are 2:2 at 7%, 1:2 at 6%, and 2:3 at 6%. These figures suggest a match where Lokomotiv edge it, though a draw remains possible if Tractor camp out in their own zone and hold their shape.

Lokomotiv have won 15 of 19 meetings, Tractor just 4. The most recent encounter ended 5:1 to the visitors. Before that, Traktor won 3:1 at home in October 2025, but Lokomotiv took the next three meetings, including two 2:1 victories in May 2025.