TUTO Hockey vs Pyry Nokian: match prediction on 11 September 2026

TUTO Hockey to win, 65%. The model projects 3.9 goals for the hosts and 2.3 for the visitors, and the most likely scorelines all show TUTO ahead. Recent meetings show Pyry took a 5-2 win on 26.08.2026, but the data points to a home advantage. This conclusion stops holding if Pyry replicate that away performance.

Both sides arrive with identical records. TUTO Hockey won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 21 goals and conceding 12. Pyry Nokian also won 4 of 5, netting 20 and letting in 12. Neither side has drawn a game in that stretch. Recent meetings show Pyry took a 5-2 win on 26.08.2026, while TUTO won 4-2 at Pyry's rink on 21.02.2026.

TUTO's home results include a 7-4 win on 27.12.2025 and a 6-2 victory on 31.10.2025. Pyry's wins came at 3-0 and 4-3 in Mestis fixtures. TUTO dominates at Kupittaan jäähalli.

The model's expected goals reinforce the home bias. The draw probability sits at 14%, while both teams to score reaches 88%. Three or more goals are expected in 95% of simulations. The three most likely scorelines—3:2, 4:2, 3:1—all give TUTO the edge.

Pyry Nokian's recent form gives them credibility. They beat KeuPa 4-1 at home on 03.09.2026 and won 3-1 away from the same opponent on 01.09.2026. Their only loss in the last five came 5-2 away at K-Vantaa on 18.08.2026. They also defeated K-Vantaa 6-3 at home on 20.08.2026. Those results show they can compete, but the 2-5 defeat at TUTO's home suggests a ceiling when facing the hosts.

Both teams have scored freely in friendlies, so defensive solidity will be tested. Pyry's away friendlies show mixed results: a 5-2 win at TUTO but a 2-5 loss at K-Vantaa.

The 95% probability of 3+ goals aligns with both teams' attacking outputs. TUTO's 21 goals in 5 matches averages 4.2 per game; Pyry's 20 averages 4.0. The model's figures reflect this trend, projecting a combined 6.2 goals. If either side's attack underperforms, the scorelines shift toward 3-1 or 2-1, but the data points higher.