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Arema FC Adhyaksa 3 0 45′ St Kitts and Nevis Patriots St Lucia Kings 122/2 0 Krylya Sovetov Moskva Krasnaya Armiya 0 3 2′ Omsk Women Amurskiye Tigritsy Women 0 0 England Under-19s Pakistan Under-19s 333 257/6 Surrey Yorkshire …27/0 …82 Matches →

Sports predictions

A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.

Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models

Prediction accuracy

51%

915 / 1784

915hit
869missed
604Pending
1784checked predictions

Checked forecasts

Primeira Liga Miss
Casa Pia AC Moreirense

Prediction for Casa Pia AC — Moreirense

Win: Casa Pia AC

41%probability
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Premier League Hit
Rubin Makhachkala

Prediction for Rubin — Makhachkala

Win: Rubin

40%probability
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CEV European Championship Women Hit
Serbia Women Croatia Women

Prediction for Serbia Women — Croatia Women

Win: Serbia Women

86%probability
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Primera División Femenina Hit
Barcelona Women Granadilla Tenerife Women

Prediction for Barcelona Women — Granadilla Tenerife Women

Win: Barcelona Women

81%probability
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MLS Next Pro Hit
Columbus Crew II Chicago FC United

Prediction for Columbus Crew II — Chicago FC United

Win: Columbus Crew II

42%probability
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Second League Hit
Spartak Pleven Vihren

Prediction for Spartak Pleven — Vihren

Win: Vihren

42%probability
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First League Miss
Nizhny Novgorod Volga Ulyanovsk

Prediction for Nizhny Novgorod — Volga Ulyanovsk

Win: Nizhny Novgorod

70%probability
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Herre Handbold Ligaen Hit
Aalborg Håndbold Holstebro TTH

Prediction for Aalborg Håndbold — Holstebro TTH

Win: Aalborg Håndbold

63%probability
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Herre Handbold Ligaen Miss
Bjerringbro-Silkeborg Nordsjælland Håndbold

Prediction for Bjerringbro-Silkeborg — Nordsjælland Håndbold

Win: Bjerringbro-Silkeborg

56%probability
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Kvindeligaen Women Hit
Odense Women Skanderborg Women

Prediction for Odense Women — Skanderborg Women

Win: Odense Women

71%probability
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Meistaradeildin Miss
Skála ÍF 07 Vestur

Prediction for Skála ÍF — 07 Vestur

Win: Skála ÍF

47%probability
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Friendly International Women Hit
Belgium Women Japan Women

Prediction for Belgium Women — Japan Women

Win: Belgium Women

62%probability
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Pro League Miss
Al-Hazem Al Shabab

Prediction for Al-Hazem — Al Shabab

Win: Al Shabab

41%probability
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

How a forecast is made

First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.

What data goes in

Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.

What the probability means

Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.

Limits of a forecast

The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.