Once Caldas secured a narrow victory over Alianza Petrolera in the Colombian Cup Round of 16 on Wednesday evening. The match ended 1-0 to the hosts after a goal in the seventeenth minute. It was a tight affair where chances were scarce and the result proved decisive.
A. Roa opened the scoring at the 17-minute mark, giving Once Caldas the lead they would not relinquish. The visitors pressed for an equaliser but could not find the breakthrough. Alianza Petrolera had a penalty shout turned down in the first half and another opportunity came later.
The visitors missed their best chance at the 83-minute point when D. Moreno sent his spot-kick wide. It was a crucial miss that could have changed everything. By then the hosts had grown comfortable in their advantage and saw out the remaining time.
Our prediction of a home victory proved correct, though the margin was tighter than expected. We had given Once Caldas a 60 per cent chance of success based on their recent form. The hosts had won two of their last four while Alianza Petrolera were winless in three away games. The prediction held up because Once Caldas controlled the tempo better and created more quality chances.
Once Caldas registered nine shots on target compared to Alianza Petrolera's three. Both sides shared possession equally at fifty percent, but the hosts were more dangerous in the final third. They also won nine corners to none for their opponents, suggesting sustained pressure.
The result leaves Alianza Petrolera second in their group with seven points from four matches. They remain in contention but cannot afford another slip if they want to progress. Once Caldas move closer to the quarter-finals with this important victory.
