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Provence Rugby vs Aurillac: match prediction on 25 September 2026

Pro D2 Stade Maurice David Aix-en-Provence Hit Match page
Provence Rugby Aurillac

Prediction for

Win: Provence Rugby

76%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

76% 1
24% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 23 Sep, 18:41

Provence Rugby extended their unbeaten run to five matches, but the outcome of this Pro D2 fixture remains unknown as the final score is not provided in the available data. Provence Rugby sat third in the table with 17 points from four victories, while Aurillac languished in thirteenth place with 6 points from one win and three defeats.

Form and Context

The disparity in recent form was evident in the league positions, with Provence Rugby boasting a perfect record of four wins from four games before this match. Aurillac’s campaign had been difficult, yielding only one victory from four attempts. Their head-to-head history showed Provence Rugby dominance, with five wins in seven meetings compared to Aurillac’s single success. However, the specific details of how this pattern continued or broke on 25 September 2026 are absent from the records.

Statistical Expectations

Analysis suggested a heavy advantage for the hosts, predicting 42.9 goals for Provence Rugby against 19.3 for Aurillac. The probability of a draw was calculated at 0%, as was the likelihood of both sides scoring. These figures implied a one-sided affair, but without the actual match statistics or a final scoreline, it is impossible to confirm whether the prediction held true. The data does not reveal how many tries were scored or if any disciplinary actions occurred.

Standings Impact

The result, once recorded, would have shifted the points gap between the two sides. Provence Rugby entered the game as clear favourites, sitting comfortably in the promotion mix. Aurillac, struggling with a negative point difference in their recent five matches (168 points for, 209 against), needed a positive outcome to alleviate pressure. Without the final tally, the impact on the table remains theoretical.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 23 Sep, 18:41
  • Прованс Рёгби — 2. place, 17 points after 4 games (4 wins, 0 losses)
  • Орийак — 13. place, 6 points after 4 games (1 wins, 3 losses)
  • Прованс Рёгби, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
  • Орийак, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
  • Head-to-head: 7 games, Прованс Рёгби — 5, 1 draws, Орийак — 1

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Provence Rugby WWWWW 5 wins
Aurillac LLLWW 2 wins · 3 losses

Head to head 12

7Provence Rugby 1Draw 4Aurillac
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

No bookmaker data

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+