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Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
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Japan vs Iran: match prediction on 13 September 2026
Japan
Iran
Prediction for
Win: Japan
84%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
84%
1
16%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 13 Sep, 07:13- Япония — 1. place, 9 points after 3 games (3 wins, 0 losses)
- Иран — 1. place, 9 points after 3 games (3 wins, 0 losses)
- Япония, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Иран, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 4 games, Япония — 4, Иран — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Japan
LWWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Iran
LWWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 8
7Japan
0Draw
1Iran
- 26 JunIran — Japan2:3
- 4 Jun 2024Iran — Japan0:3
- 26 Aug 2023Iran — Japan0:3
- 6 Jun 2023Japan — Iran3:0
- 12 Jun 2022Iran — Japan0:3
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 13 Sep, 07:13This group-stage decider separates Japan and Iran, who occupy the same position in the table. Japan win, 84% confidence. The head-to-head record carries the weight here: Japan have won five of the last six meetings between these sides, including three straight 3-0 victories. The model projects 2.1 xG for Japan, 1.2 for Iran, and the draw probability sits at 0%.
Japan and Iran each hold 9 points after 3 matches, with identical records of 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses. The group stands level at the summit.
Japan won 3-0 at home in June 2023, then took another 3-0 victory in Tehran in August 2023. The most recent encounter ended 3-2 to Japan in Tehran on 26 June 2026. Iran's sole win came on 19 September 2021 at home, when they beat Japan 3-0.
Japan's last five matches produced 4 wins and 1 loss, with 13 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their defeat came 1-3 against Slovenia in the Nations League at home on 2 August. Iran's record over the same period is identical: 4 wins, 1 loss, 13 goals for, 5 against. Their loss came 1-3 away to Turkey in the Nations League on 19 July.
xG 2.1 points to a 1-0 or 2-0 win. The 0% probability for both teams to score and 0% for three or more goals suggests a one-goal margin with Japan in control.