Maccabi Ashdod vs Hapoel Jerusalem: match prediction on 13 October 2026

Maccabi Ashdod are tipped to win, a call backed by 71% confidence from the analyst service. They have dominated the recent history between these sides despite losing four of their last five matches.

Ashdod picked up just three points from a 1-4 record. Their defensive frailty is evident in the 7:13 goal ratio, yet they managed a 3-1 victory at home against M. Hadera Hefer on 26 March. That result sits alongside three heavy defeats, including a 0-3 away loss to H. Mate Asher on 28 March.

Hapoel Jerusalem sit slightly higher on points with six from their last five games. They claimed two wins against Aylabon and Hapoel Kiryat Ata, but dropped points in three defeats, including a 0-3 home loss to H. Mate Asher on 3 February. Their away record includes a 0-3 loss to Maccabi Ashdod earlier this year.

The head-to-head record heavily favours the hosts. In six meetings since 2022, Maccabi Ashdod won three while Hapoel Jerusalem secured one victory. The most recent fixture ended 3-0 to Maccabi Ashdod on 27 January, and before that a 3-2 win for Hapoel Jerusalem on 15 November. Maccabi Ashdod have also won two of the three matches played at their own ground in this period.

The model projects 2.9 expected goals for Maccabi Ashdod and 2 for Hapoel Jerusalem. It gives zero chance to a draw and zero chance to both teams scoring. The prediction fails if Hapoel Jerusalem can exploit the hosts' defensive errors, particularly given Maccabi Ashdod's recent tendency to concede. A draw would suit the visitors, and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat.