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Ufa vs MGTU Moscow: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Russian Cup Dvorets Borby Ufa Hit Match page
Ufa MGTU Moscow

Prediction for

Win: Ufa

72%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

72% 1
28% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 22 Sep, 15:18

Ufa are favourites to win this Russian Cup clash on Wednesday, and the weight of history behind them makes that the most logical reading of the fixture. They have won seven of the eight meetings between these sides, including the most recent encounter on 11 September when they edged MGTU Moscow 3:2 in the Cup.

That single triumph came on 5 April 2025 at the MGTU Moscow ground, a 3:0 victory in the Russian Cup. The pattern is consistent: Ufa control these encounters.

Ufa sit second in the table with nine points from five matches, recording three wins and two losses. MGTU Moscow occupy third place with eight points from the same number of games, their record reading two wins and three defeats. But Ufa's position in the table reflects greater consistency.

Ufa are projected to score 1.7 goals on average, while MGTU Moscow are expected to manage 0.9. The probability of a draw is listed at 0%, and the chance of both teams scoring is also 0%. These figures suggest a one-sided contest where Ufa's attacking output is likely to prove decisive.

If they can absorb pressure and exploit any lapse in Ufa's concentration, late in the second half, the result could shift. But that scenario requires a level of defensive discipline they have not consistently displayed in recent meetings.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 22 Sep, 15:18
  • Уфа — 2. place, 5 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 losses)
  • МГТУ Москва — 3. place, 4 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
  • Уфа, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
  • МГТУ Москва, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
  • Head-to-head: 8 games, Уфа — 7, МГТУ Москва — 1

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Ufa WWLWL 3 wins · 2 losses
MGTU Moscow LLWLL 1 win · 4 losses

Head to head 8

7Ufa 0Draw 1MGTU Moscow
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+