Ujpest Women vs Zeleznicar Women: match prediction on 30 September 2026

Újpest Women are the clear favourites here, backed by a model that expects them to outscore their Serbian visitors 2.1 to 1.2, with a 0% probability of a draw.

Home advantage and recent momentum

Újpest Women have won one of their last five matches and lost four, picking up just 3 points while conceding 12 goals to their 4 scored. Their most recent outing on 29 September saw them travel to Otp Banka Branik Women and secure a 3:0 victory in a friendly, the only win in their current run. The pattern before that was brutal — four consecutive defeats, three of them 0:3 shutouts against Bekéscsabai and KNRC Women in the Extraliga.

Zeleznicar's mixed form

Zeleznicar Women are in better shape on paper. Two wins from five matches, 6 points, and 6 goals scored against 12 conceded. They beat Partizan Women 3:1 at home on 11 September in a friendly, then lost 0:3 away to Ub Women on 20 September in another friendly. Their league results against Tent Women were split — a 3:2 win at home and two 0:3 defeats away.

The model's edge

The expected goals figures give Újpest a clear advantage. At 2.1 versus 1.2, the home side is projected to create more chances. The model also assigns 0% probability to both teams scoring and 0% to three or more total goals, which suggests a tight, low-scoring affair where Újpest's slight edge in attack could be decisive.

What breaks the prediction

This conclusion stops holding if Zeleznicar Women replicate their home form from April, where they beat Tent Women 3:2, or if Újpest's recent friendly win proves to be an outlier rather than a sign of improvement.