Anwil Wloclawek vs Donar Groningen: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Anwil Wloclawek win at 65%

Anwil Wloclawek are the clear favourites for this ENBL fixture on 24 September 2026. The Polish side have built a stronger foundation than their Dutch visitors, and the numbers back that up. The model puts Anwil at 90.2 expected points against Donar Groningen's 78.9 — a 11.3-point gap that reflects the form split.

Anwil have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches, winning twice and losing three times. They scored 418 goals while conceding 413 across those five games, averaging 83.6 per match. Their home record shows flashes of solidity — a 94-79 victory over Trefl Sopot and a 96-83 win against Slask Wroclaw demonstrate they can put up numbers when it matters. The 84-87 loss to MKS Dabrowa Gornicza and 71-86 defeat to Zielona Góra were tighter affairs, both decided by single digits.

Donar Groningen sit in a different category entirely. One win from five outings, three points on the board, and a goal difference of -34 tells the story. They managed just 385 goals across the same period, averaging 77 per game — well below Anwil's output. The 62-70 loss to Zwolle in the Supercup on 12 September 2026 was particularly telling, as was the 71-91 away defeat to Leiden. Four losses in five games suggests momentum is working against them.

The model's expectations align with this reality. Anwil's 90.2 expected points represent a slight improvement on their recent average, which is reasonable given they are at home. Donar's 78.9 sits below their recent average of 77, but the model accounts for the quality of opposition in the ENBL compared to their domestic DBL fixtures. The 0% draw probability reflects the expectation of a decisive result — basketball rarely ends level, and the model sees no scenario where these sides finish on equal terms.

This prediction holds only if Anwil maintain their typical offensive output. A cold shooting night, combined with Donar finding unexpected form, could tighten the margin. If Anwil start poorly and Donar capitalise on early pressure, the 11-point gap narrows considerably. The model does not account for in-game variables — injuries, tactical adjustments, or momentum shifts — so a closer result remains possible. The 65% confidence reflects the form differential, not certainty.