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Australia Women vs Spain Women: match prediction on 10 September 2026

FIBA World Cup Women Qudos Bank Arena Canberra Miss Match page
Australia Women Spain Women

Prediction for

Win: Australia Women

54%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

54% 1
46% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 10 Sep, 06:22

Australia Women to win against Spain Women in the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2026. We project 74.8 points for Australia versus 70.

Australia's form has been strong despite one setback. Australia have won three of four, including an 82-80 road win over Italy. Over three games: 63.7% FG, 19 assists, 8.7 steals.

Spain have also won four of their last five. They defeated Japan 79-59 away on 7 September, lost 73-82 to Mali two days earlier, then beat Germany 83-53 and China 72-71 at home. Their three-point shooting has been particularly sharp with 8.33 three-pointers per game compared to Australia's 5.67, and they've committed fewer turnovers at 12 per game versus Australia's 16.67.

Australia won 75-66 in their only meeting, a friendly on 22 July 2024.

Outlook hinges on Australia's superior rebounding (35 to 34 for Spain).

Spain must keep their three-point output up and force Australia below 14 turnovers. Injuries or suspensions could shift the balance. If Spain can limit Australia's second-chance opportunities below their current average of 7.33 offensive rebounds, the game could swing their way.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 10 Sep, 06:22
  • Австралия (жен.), last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
  • Испания Женщины, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
  • Head-to-head: 1 games, Австралия (жен.) — 1, Испания Женщины — 0

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Australia Women WWLWL 3 wins · 2 losses
Spain Women LWWLW 3 wins · 2 losses

Head to head 1

1Australia Women 0Draw 0Spain Women
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+