Illawarra Hawks vs Tasmania JackJumpers: match prediction on 9 October 2026

Hawks edge expected

I see Illawarra Hawks to win, 93.5 to 91.3 on the model. The visitors arrive with better recent form, but the Hawks hold a 4-2 advantage in the last six meetings and host at home. The model's slight edge, combined with their head-to-head record, points to a narrow Hawks victory.

Illawarra have won just one of their last five matches, taking three points from 15 available. They lost 96:113 away to South East Melbourne on 4 October, 100:121 to Sydney Kings on 27 September, 95:103 to Brisbane Bullets on 25 September, and 81:95 to the New Zealand Breakers on 20 September. Their only win came 114:92 against Adelaide at home on 2 October. They have scored 486 and conceded 524 across those five games, an average of 97.2 points per match.

Tasmania have won three of their last five, collecting nine points. They beat Brisbane 109:99 away on 3 October, held off Melbourne United 84:82 at home on 1 October, and overcame South East Melbourne 96:91 at home on 21 September. They lost 87:93 to Cairns Taipans away on 23 September and 68:82 to Melbourne United away on 5 March. Their tally stands at 444 points scored and 447 conceded.

The two sides have met 14 times over recent years, with seven wins apiece. In the last six meetings, Illawarra have won four: 103:70 and 101:91 in Tasmania in January and February 2026, 92:90 and 89:84 at home in December 2025 and January 2025, plus 102:78 in Tasmania in January 2025. Tasmania have won twice: 91:86 at home in September 2025 and lost 70:103 to Illawarra in January 2025. The Hawks have won the last two home matches between them.

The model projects 93.5 points for Illawarra and 91.3 for Tasmania, with a 0% chance of a draw and 0% that both teams fail to score. The margin is narrow—2.2 points—suggesting a close contest. The Hawks' three-point shooting averages 10.4 made shots per game from 31 attempts, while Tasmania average 9.5 from 27.5. Illawarra record 22.4 assists and 36 rebounds per game, Tasmania 18.5 assists and 35.5 rebounds.

The model's prediction could fail if Tasmania play better. They have won three of five, including two away victories, and their scoring efficiency in those games suggests they can match the Hawks. A strong start from Tasmania, combined with Illawarra's tendency to lose away matches, would shift momentum. The model's 2.2-point margin is thin enough to be overturned by a single quarter of poor shooting from the hosts.

Illawarra's home record in recent meetings gives them the edge, but Tasmania's ability to win on the road—against Brisbane and Melbourne United—means they are not fragile visitors. The Hawks need to control the boards and limit Tasmania's transition opportunities. If they do, the model's projection holds. If Tasmania out-rebound them and score efficiently in the first quarter, the Hawks' recent struggles could resurface.

The Hawks have won four of the last six meetings, including both at home in the past year. Tasmania have struggled to win away in this fixture, losing 87:93 to Cairns in their last away game before this one. Illawarra's home advantage, combined with their head-to-head dominance, makes them the slight favourite despite their poor run of results.

I see a Hawks win at 65%. The model's narrow margin means either side can win, but the head-to-head and home factor tilt the balance.