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Ironi Ness Ziona vs Hapoel Holon: match prediction on 10 September 2026
Ironi Ness Ziona
Hapoel Holon
Prediction for
Win: Hapoel Holon
53%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
47%
1
53%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 17:06- Ирони Несс Циона, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Хапоэль Холон, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 9 games, Ирони Несс Циона — 2, Хапоэль Холон — 7
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Ironi Ness Ziona
LLWWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Hapoel Holon
LLLLL
5 losses
Head to head 18
5Ironi Ness Ziona
0Draw
13Hapoel Holon
- 5 MayHapoel Holon — Ironi Ness Ziona98:104
- 31 Oct 2025Ironi Ness Ziona — Hapoel Holon70:82
- 14 Feb 2025Ironi Ness Ziona — Hapoel Holon72:60
- 11 Nov 2024Hapoel Holon — Ironi Ness Ziona91:85
- 23 Sep 2024Hapoel Holon — Ironi Ness Ziona81:68
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 17:06Hapoel Holon to win, and the model projects them to edge the hosts 84.7 to 81.9. Ironi Ness Ziona's form has been sharper—three wins from five—but the head-to-head record carries weight on a night when the visitors have proven they can handle the hosts' style.
Ironi Ness Ziona arrived on a better run. They beat Ironi Kiryat Ata 98:94 away in the League Cup on 8 September, then took two Super League wins against Maccabi Raanana and Elitzur Maccabi Netanya on the road. Their only setbacks came at home, losing 65:76 to Hapoel Galil Elyon and 88:102 to Elitzur Maccabi Netanja. They have scored 434 points and conceded 433 across those five matches—a near-even tally that suggests balance but also vulnerability.
Hapoel Holon's five matches tell a different story. Three losses came in June against Maccabi Tel Aviv, all by significant margins: 61:89, 74:84, and 93:107. They then bounced back with two wins over Bnei Herzliya, 99:84 at home and 84:73 away. Their totals sit at 411 scored and 437 conceded, a negative differential that raises questions about their defensive stability. Yet those two wins show they can finish games when the opponent is weaker.
The history between them is not kind to Ironi Ness Ziona. The most recent clash on 5 May 2026 ended 104:98 to the visitors, a rare exception alongside an 81:68 League Cup win in September 2024.
The model's figures point to a tight affair. Hapoel Holon are expected to score 84.7 points, Ironi Ness Ziona 81.9. The draw probability sits at 0%. These numbers suggest a one-sided margin, not a thriller. The visitors' edge comes from their ability to control the tempo and exploit the hosts' defensive lapses, which have shown up in recent losses.
The lean shifts if Ness Ziona find their range. They have scored 434 points in five games, averaging 86.8 per match. If they exceed that average and hold Hapoel Holon below 84 points, the visitors' advantage evaporates. A strong start from the hosts could also shift momentum, especially given their recent away wins.
The pick remains Hapoel Holon at 53% confidence. It is a lean, not a conviction.