Italy vs Serbia: match prediction on 31 August 2026

Serbia win, 53% confidence. The visitors arrive with four victories in their last five matches compared to Italy's two, and the model projects them to edge the scoreline 82.2 to 79.2. That margin is narrow, but the weight of recent results tilts toward the away side.

Italy's recent form

Italy have lost three of their last five games, including a 76:78 defeat away to Bosnia & Herzegovina on 28 August. They have managed only two wins in that period — a 83:61 home victory over Estonia and an 82:81 narrow success away to Lithuania. The losses came against Slovenia (77:84) and Iceland (76:81), both at home. Their scoring average across those five matches sits at 78.8 points per game, with 77.0 conceded, but the inconsistency shows in the pattern of results.

Serbia's momentum

Serbia have won four of their five most recent fixtures, dropping only one match — a 90:91 loss away to France on 23 August. Their other results include a 102:73 home win over Iceland, a 90:87 victory against France at home, a 74:72 away win versus Bosnia & Herzegovina, and a 90:86 home success against Switzerland. They are averaging 87.2 points per game in that run while conceding 81.4.

Head-to-head record

Italy hold a 3-2 advantage in the last five meetings, but the most recent encounters tell a different story. Serbia lost 76:78 and 88:89 in 2023, then lost 86:94 in September 2022. The only Serbian victory in that span came in August 2022, when they beat Italy 90:86 in their own venue.

Statistical edge

Serbia's averages over the last three matches show an advantage in several categories. They are hitting 32 three-pointers compared to Italy's 29, grabbing 37 rebounds to 31.67, and committing fewer turnovers at 9.33 versus 10.67. Italy's defensive rebounding (21.33) trails Serbia's (22.33), and their field goal count (63.67) sits below Serbia's 66.33.

What would change the outcome

A draw suits neither side, but the visitors' edge evaporates. Italy would need to improve their rebounding and reduce turnovers to match Serbia's pace. If the game becomes a defensive grind rather than an open contest, the model's projection loses its footing.